SALT-MEERSTAD – It’s refreshing to see the epidemiological curve of Utah’s COVID-19 drop over the past few weeks after the case rose in months; however, there are signs that recent numbers of cases do not show a complete picture of COVID-19 in the state.
In a conventional sense, the distribution of COVID-19 can be determined by simply looking at new cases discovered by testing. But what happens if the coronavirus test does not match exactly?
This is where other statistics work together on how COVID-19 is currently affecting the state.
Confirmed cases down, positivity rate rises slowly
The Utah Department of Health reported 972 new cases of COVID-19 from tests taken Friday and 802 Saturday. These figures were the lowest one-day increase since early October. In fact, it announced a piece of 1,000 or more new daily cases announced by the Department of Health and dates back to October 12th. The department reported another 1,700 cases of testing on Sunday, which is well below the seven-day moving average before Christmas.
The COVID-19 epidemiological curve of the state and the seven-day moving average of new cases have also declined since about December 10th.
That said, testing is another figure that has dropped in the same time. For example, more than 15,000 people were tested for COVID-19 on December 9 – according to data from the health department, these are the most tests performed after Thanksgiving. Apart from a few outliers, the state has mostly reported days with less than 10,000 tests since then. Tests were not done on Christmas Day and test sites were closed early on Christmas Eve, but the downward trend is visible on a chart before the holidays.
Meanwhile, the percentage of positive tests to tests commonly known as positivity rate has only increased since about the time the cases decreased. As of Monday, the seven-day average positivity rate of Utah was 24.4% by the December 22 return date. Preliminary data from the weekend indicated that the positivity rates are closer to 30%, which means that the number will increase in the coming days.
Experts said that positivity rate is an important statistic because it can give a better assessment of how common a virus is in a community when numbers are tested and that it becomes unreliable. In this case, the positivity rate is the biggest sign that COVID-19 is not completely leaving Utah, even if the case drops.
“We are certainly concerned because it represents a high level of community transfer,” said Dr. Todd Vento, an infectious disease physician at Intermountain Healthcare, said. “Therefore, we are constantly monitoring the situation to see if there are any additional measures we need to take to address it.”
Vento said health officials do not know exactly why the test is currently down; however, they have seen trends throughout the pandemic and of diseases different from COVID-19. On a smaller scale, some days – such as Sunday and Monday – yield fewer tests than other days. It is believed to be related to when someone is expected to for some reason, such as work.
“Same concept after vacation,” Vento said. “We saw earlier where the numbers were immediately lower. The numbers were very low yesterday, which people – due to lack of better words – wake up from the holiday and maybe, for example, Tuesday or Wednesday they will start think “OK, I’m going to test.” It is also not uncommon for other respiratory diseases. ‘
As the test was lower, he said the epidemiological curve and the seven-day moving average of the number of cases “may not so accurately reflect what is happening in the community”, especially if it does not take into account days where the test was not limited.
This is where the positivity rate comes into play.
“You can not just see the cases and the case of seven days, because it will not reflect exactly the same number of tests that were done,” he added.
As for Utah’s positivity rate, it’s been a roller coaster ride for the past few weeks. After rising to 25.4% on November 10, it fell by 21.8% on November 22 – a few days before Thanksgiving. It rose again to a current record high of 27.2% on 1 December before falling back to 22.3% on 13 December. Since then, it has climbed gradually, but at a much slower pace.
What happened to COVID-19 hospitalizations?
The biggest concern with COVID-19, of course, is the impact it has on hospitals and deaths. Vento said hospitalizations in Utah have stabilized due to the coronavirus and even dropped a bit. This is a welcome sign for a nationwide hospital system that was on the verge of full capacity.
Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are usually lagging behind in new cases, so the current peak of 606 hospitalizations on December 4 is mainly due to the increase in COVID-19 cases before Thanksgiving. Public health experts have warned about holiday gatherings for fear that hospitalizations will only grow.
It appears that Utahns complied with the pandemic recommendations for at least Thanksgiving. While many new cases were reported, there were not nearly as many as feared. As a result, just before Christmas, for the first time since mid-November, the State Health Department reported fewer than 500 hospitalizations due to COVID-19.
‘While the country had a boom in a boom – (there was a boom in the fall and then a boom after Thanksgiving for the United States – we did not see the level of increasing cases after Thanksgiving, because we were wondering if we were worried about it), which is very good, ‘he said.
He added that hospitals have also learned to shorten stays for patients who do not need ICU care by offering home repair models so that people can leave the hospital earlier.
Data may show that COVID-19 has not yet left the state as new cases are declining, but one positive sign is that new hospitalizations due to the coronavirus are declining.
The state health department recently began reporting the seven-day moving average of new hospitalizations per day, above current hospitalization figures. On November 18, Utah reached an average of seven days of 92.4 hospitalizations per day. It was the day 116 new Utahns were admitted to a hospital due to COVID-19.
The average dropped to 71.2 new hospitalizations per day on December 22, which is the first day after the period of incomplete new hospitalization data. These figures are still high, especially compared to the numbers before November. Nevertheless, it shows that the following guidelines for Thanksgiving events have not only helped slow down the growth of new cases, but have also reduced the impact on hospitals.
The jury is still out on whether the holiday events in December will be taken into account in any way, as the holiday season only closes after New Year’s Day on Friday.
New Year prospects
All the health recommendations for Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas and Kwanzaa apply to New Year. This means health officials recommend that people celebrate the holidays at home and virtually connect with other households.
Intermountain Healthcare even promoted a do-it-yourself New Year’s Eve ball from a pipe foam ball and a wooden stick as one way to celebrate the holiday in a fun and safe way.
Looking for a fun way to celebrate New Year’s Eve safely? Try to create your own ball delivery experience at home! #DIY # IMTNCovid19
Posted by Intermountain Healthcare on Sunday, December 27, 2020
Vento’s colleague Dr Eddie Stenehjem, another infectious disease physician at Intermountain Healthcare, said last week that he expects COVID-19 testing to increase after New Year’s Day. One of the main reasons for this, he said, is that colleges in Utah begin their weekly mass testing of students who will be testing on campus for the spring semester.
Once it starts, the positivity rate will be another important factor, as test numbers may exceed previous test norms.
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