Booster shots against the covid-19 coronavirus could become a regular necessity, according to recent remarks by David Kessler, chief scientific officer for President Joe Biden’s covid-19 task force, as well as by Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer.
Kessler said during a meeting of the Congressional Committee today that boosts may be needed within a year and that “those who are more vulnerable will have to go first” to get it. According to him, the immunity provided by vaccine decreases over time and can be challenged by new variants of the virus.
The head of Pfizer, the manufacturer of one of the covid-19 vaccines authorized in the US for emergency use, said in a recent interview that it is likely that people will need a third shot of their vaccine within 12 months. Bourla also left open the possibility that annual shots against the coronavirus could be a reality.
Bourla’s statements were made during an interview with CNBC, as part of an event held jointly by CVS Health. The event aired Thursday, but took place on April 1 two weeks ago. In discussing the potential long-term protection offered by Pfizer’s vaccine, Bourla raised other viral diseases that occur through vaccines, such as polio and influenza, which require different vaccination schedules. And in the case of the coronavirus, it is probably closer to the flu, which requires annual vaccination.
“A likely scenario is that a third dose will probably be needed between six and twelve months, and from there it will be vaccinated again annually,” Bourla said.
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The similar mRNA vaccines manufactured by Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna have been very effective (over 90%) in preventing covid-19 diseases, especially serious illness and death. And more recent real-world evidence suggests that they are about as effective as preventing infection and significantly reducing the risk of transmission. Earlier today, the Wall Street Journal report that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has so far identified only 5,800 “breakthrough” cases out of 66 million Americans who received a covid-19 vaccine, an infection rate of less than 0.008%. Of these rare cases among people who were fully vaccinated, a third were asymptomatic, 7% needed hospitalization and about 1% died – a total of 74 deaths. By comparison, in the U.S., about 1,000 people die from covid-19 each day, while more than 3,000 people die each day during the winter peak.
Other research has suggested that reinfection is rare in people who are naturally infected at least three months later, while recent data from Pfizer’s clinical trials suggest that immunity is provided by vaccine stay over strong for at least six months. It is certainly possible that these vaccines provide lasting protection for even longer than that.
Our current vaccines are still widely effective compared to different variants of the coronavirus that have emerged in recent months, but some (such as B.135, which was first found in South Africa) seem slightly better at evading immunity than others. And even before these variants spread widely, scientists warned that the coronavirus could meaningfully mutate along the way in a way that makes it possible to evade the immunity provided by natural infection or vaccination.
Both Pfizer and Moderna are currently trial trials of an enhancer strategy at B.135, and Moderna is also testing an adjusted dose of its vaccine intended to specifically target the variant. Ultimately, however, the best long-term solution for our struggles will likely be a universal vaccine that can effectively target all future strains of the virus – a plan that scientists are already working on, according to Anthony Fauci, who also talked for House members on Thursday.