The brutal horse race, which is the US COVID-19 pandemic, has been reduced to a battle between two tough coronavirus strains: a variant native to California and an import from the United Kingdom.
New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicates that the California tribe accounted for 13% of all coronavirus samples genetically sequenced in late February as part of a new federal program. An additional 7% of the samples were from the UK
Both versions of the virus have scientists and health officials on the point because they spread more easily than their predecessors and appear to be less vulnerable to some drugs used to treat COVID-19. The California tribe has also shown signs of resistance to the current crop of COVID-19 vaccines.
Indeed, studies have found that it is 20% more transferable than other variants in broad circulation. The increased transmission power, the ability to short-circuit the effectiveness of treatments, and the ability to harm the effects of vaccine, forced the CDC this week to declare the home-grown strain a “problem of concern.”
Known to scientists B.1.427 / B.1.429, it exploded during the fall and early winter in California while the state had a deadly holiday boom. It now dominates in his home state and two of his neighbors. As of mid-February, it was 52% of the samples from California, 41% of the samples from Nevada and 25% from Arizona, CDC data show.
But the British tension gives him a chance to make money – with a projected impact ranging from uncertain to deeply worrying.
In January, CDC researchers predicted that by March, the British variant would become the dominant one in the US. Epidemiologist Somer Galloway, the lead author of the report, said on Wednesday that it is probably responsible for 20% to 30% of the samples compiled today.
The CDC does not have an equivalent estimate of how wide the California variant is, Galloway said.
What the genetic sequence’s data show is that the British variant, known as B.1.1.7, is on the rise nationwide and has sparked a handful of local outbreaks. Its documented presence increased from 76 cases in 12 states in early January to 4,686 cases in all 50 states and the District of Columbia by the end of February.
The B.1.1.7 variant is thought to be as much as 50% more transmissible than other commonly distributed variants, and a study published this week in the journal Nature suggests that it is 61% more likely to develop serious diseases or to cause death.
The prospect that it could cause another spate of infections in the US has contributed to promoting a determined effort to expand vaccinations.
At the same time, however, many state governors are releasing restrictions on wearing masks, restaurants and attending large gatherings.
The new CDC findings prompted Dr Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, to declare that the California variant is ‘on the verge of aging’.
The fact that the transmission speed of the British variant is higher than that of the California tribe means that the latter “will be quickly displaced by B.1.1.7,” he said. In a struggle for the domination of the population, ‘spread the rule’.
According to Topol, two other variants – one identified in South Africa (called B.1.351) and another in Brazil (P.1) are likely to face the same fate “because they do not have such an increased distribution capacity as B.1.1 .7 has not. ”
Galloway said that neither the South African nor the Brazilian variant has gained much traction in America. Although both are also listed as “variants of concern”, there have been no more than 0.05% of coronavirus infections in the country since January.
But in Minnesota, Michigan and Florida, sudden emergence of new cases with the British variant posed new challenges for public health officials struggling to end the pandemic with aggressive vaccination campaigns. These outbreaks indicate that the estimates of B.1.1.7’s greater transferability are not exaggerated.
In Ionia, Michigan, the variant was at the heart of a major outbreak in the Bellamy Creek correctional facility, which housed 1,600 inmates.
On February 9, government officials acknowledged an outbreak in which 80 prisoners were apparently infected by one employee. Chris Gautz, spokesman for the Michigan Department of Corrections, said the number of infected people by Wednesday, even after the facility adopted an extensive program of testing, personal protective equipment and movement restrictions, had risen to 425 inmates and 26 employees.
Everyone was infected with the British variant, Gautz said.
In Minnesota, an outbreak of the British variant halted virtually all youth sports in Carver County and put the state on tent hooks while reopening it through a series of activities.
On January 9, the state recorded five cases in its southwest corner. Just over two months later, the state found more than 250 cases in more than two dozen provinces across the country. Carver County recorded a total weekly growth of 80% from February to March.
In addition to being more contagious, the strain was also associated with higher mortality rates, especially among older adults and people with underlying conditions, Drs. Ruth Lynfield, the state epidemiologist and medical director of the Minnesota Department of Health, said.
Minnesota’s experience with the B.1.1.7 variant has also raised concerns about another trait: the apparent ability to spread children and young adults more easily and ill than other strains. In Minnesota, a third of the new cases were seen in people younger than 20.
This pattern has been documented by scientists elsewhere, but it has received less attention.
“What we saw really fits this picture of being very contagious,” Lynfield said. ‘We’ve seen it among youth athletes and schools. And when we looked at teams, it really had this high attack rate. ”