The latest coronavirus numbers show that the Bay is moving in the right direction after California’s severe winter storm.
Positive test figures, along with cases, are on a clear downward trajectory throughout the region. These are the key indicators the state uses to determine provinces in the four-tier reopening system, and all nine provinces in the Bay Area are currently in the strictest press level following the recent removal of local locks linked to the availability of the ICU.
Positive test scores help to give officials an idea of how many people carry the virus, including those without symptoms, and the possibility of a new increase in cases.
According to the state’s most recent report Tuesday for the week ending January 23, none of the positive tests for the nine provinces in the Bay Area were more than 7.5%. This is a significant drop from the previous week, when four provinces were above 8%. The rate is the average of seven days for all coronavirus tests that are positive.
“As long as we see that the amount of test stays at a high level and stays at a high level … the fact that the test numbers are dropping is an extremely positive finding,” said John Swartzberg, an expert in infectious disease at UC Berkeley, said. . ‘We’ve seen it consistently in all the counties here, and in hard-hit parts of Los Angeles and San Diego. We see it all over the USA ”
Positive test scores are one factor the state is considering for allocations in the county. It also affects two other statistics:
• Adjusted rate: the average of seven days of coronavirus daily cases per 100,000 people, adjusted for test levels.
• Criteria for health equality: the positive test rate in the provinces’ most disadvantaged neighborhoods.
On January 26, Governor Gavin Newsom lifted home orders and most provinces returned to the press level, where outdoor dining and personal care services, such as salons, could be allowed with restrictions. The next level is red (significant), followed by orange (moderate) and then yellow (minimal), with more businesses being allowed to resume at each level with fewer modifications.
All of the positive test figures recently reported for each Bay Area province fall below the 8% threshold for the press level. San Francisco was the lowest with 2.9%, Marin County followed with 3.4%, San Mateo was with 4.4% and Santa Clara had a rate of 4.9% – all within the orange level for the measure.
But if the adjusted rate and positive test rate for a country fall into different levels, the higher level is awarded. A country must remain in a level for at least three weeks before it can move to a less restrictive level, and in order to move forward, a country must measure at the lower levels for the past two consecutive weeks.
At present, the adjusted rate for all Bay Area provinces is well above the threshold of 7 per 100,000 people. According to the state’s data, San Francisco has the lowest rate at 12.5 daily new cases per 100,000, and Marin’s is double the press level of 14.7. Contra Costa has a rate of 29.3, while Solano’s is the highest at 32.6.
Swartzberg is concerned that with a current national average of 150,000 daily new cases, many viruses are still circulating, and the alarming new variants spreading across the state and the Bay Area could cause another bad boom if we still has not fully recovered from this. past one more.
“What worries me is when we get a boom on top of our new baseline,” he said. An increase above 150,000 cases per day, compared to 40,000 per day in November, thinks how bad it will be. We will be a heartbreaker if we have a collapsing healthcare system. ‘
He said we ‘need to make our business figures another half and a half point’ to reach a much better baseline in the event of another increase in a month and a half to two months. Experts are worried that the more contagious British variant, recently identified in the Bay Area, will become the dominant strain in the US by March.
Another measure of how widespread the coronavirus is within a community is the effective reproduction number, known as the R-effective. It represents, on average, the number of people infecting an infected person, and the rate at which the virus spreads. If the R-effect is less than 1, the number of infected people will decrease. If it is greater than 1, the number of infected people will decrease.
On January 31, the R-effective for California was estimated at 0.78, meaning that the distribution of COVID-19 is likely to decrease in the state. The more current values for each Bay Area province range from 0.75 to 0.89, which in turn shows a slowdown.
“It’s fantastic,” Swartzberg said. “That means we’ll see a decline in cases … We want the R to go as far and as fast as we can, so that’s encouraging.”
The Super Bowl kicks off this Sunday, and Swartzberg said he thinks Newsom should have waited until after the game to cancel local stay-at-home orders. Although he said that reopening the outdoors or reopening certain businesses would not drop or break the coronavirus curves, he said it did not help the situation.
“What it will make or break is what people hear, not what the governor says,” Swartzberg said. “What people hear is, ‘Okay, we’m not in a shelter-in-place mode anymore, so we can go back and do things we did before,’ we don’t have to be so careful, ‘and it is what scares me. ”
He said people should be vigilant with wearing mask and social distance, and not change their behavior because things look better. And those who are vaccinated should continue with safety precautions, because it is still uncertain whether people who are vaccinated can still become infected, or that the new variant antibodies of vaccines can escape or someone who has already become ill with COVID-19, again can infect.
Kellie Hwang is a staff writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @KellieHwang