Cooperation between China and Russia could be Biden’s biggest challenge

President Joe Biden faces a nightmare scenario of global consequences: intensified strategic cooperation between China and Russia aimed at undermining American influence and increasing Biden’s efforts to assemble democratic allies.

This is the most important and subconscious test of Biden’s leadership yet: it could be the crucial challenge of his presidency.

Over the past week, Russia and China have stepped up their separate military activities and threats to the sovereignty of Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively – countries whose living independence is an insult to Moscow and Beijing, but at the heart of US and allied interests in their regions is.

Even if the actions of Moscow and Beijing do not lead to a military invasion of one of the two countries, and most experts still believe that this is unlikely, but the extent and intensity of the military movements demand immediate attention. U.S. and allied officials dare not reject the certainty that Russia and China share intelligence, or the increasing likelihood that they will increasingly coordinate actions and strategies.

“That [Russian] “Building has reached the point where it could provide the basis for a limited military invasion,” William J. Burns, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, told the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee this week. It is not only the United States but also our allies that must be taken very seriously. ‘

On China, the annual intelligence threat assessment by the intelligence community said: “China is trying to exploit doubts about the US commitment to the region, undermine Taiwan’s democracy and expand Beijing’s influence.” Lost in the media coverage of the report was a warning about “Russia’s growing strategic partnership with China – to achieve its goals.”

Independently, the Chinese and Russia challenges would be a handful for any US president. Should China and Russia act more cohesively and coherently, then you have a story that has more consequences than the plot of any Tom Clancy novel. This is a scenario for which the US and its allies do not have a strategy or even a general understanding.

For anyone doubting Sino-Russian ambitions, the Global Times, one of my favorite places to read Chinese tea leaves, is often a mouthpiece for Beijing’s leadership. In an editorial late last month, entitled ‘Deepening ties between China and Russia as US and allies falter’, it wrote: ‘The most influential bilateral relationship in Eurasia is the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia of’ coordination for ‘ a new era. ‘

In a single thinly veiled warning to Japan and South Korea, it wrote: ‘China and Russia understand the weight of their ties … To be honest, no country in the region can stand alone against China or Russia, let alone to fight the powers. at the same time. It would be disastrous for any country that tends to confront China and Russia by entering into an alliance with the US.

Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin said last October, when asked about the possibility of a formal military alliance with China: “In theory, this is quite possible.

In any case, there is nothing theoretical about the military escalations around Ukraine and Taiwan.

Over the past week, Russia has gathered the largest concentration of troops along Ukraine’s border since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Ukrainian government officials say Russian President Vladimir Putin has brought more than 40,000 troops near Ukraine’s eastern border for ” combat exercises’ over a period of two weeks.

At the same time, China has pushed its military overflow attacks in Taiwan’s air defense zone to unprecedented levels, after flying more than 250 sorties near the island this year. Last Monday, the Chinese military sent 25 warplanes to Taiwan, a record high since Taiwan released figures last year.

The Biden government responded to Putin this week with the root of a summit meeting and the stick of new sanctions. On Tuesday, Biden called Putin, indicating that he did not want to escalate tensions with the leader, whom he considered a “killer” only a month ago.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stood next to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg when they condemned Russia’s military build-up. The Biden administration’s strongest reprimand came on Thursday when it announced new economic sanctions against 38 Russian entities accused of interfering in elections and cyberattacks, suspending ten diplomats and introducing measures banning US financial institutions from issuing newly issued Russian public debt and securities trading.

China’s invaders across Taiwan occurred shortly after the State Department issued guidelines to weaken the rules for U.S. government officials working with Taiwan. Blinken said the government was concerned about China’s “increasingly aggressive actions” and was committed to ensuring that Taiwan “has the ability to defend itself.” The United States on Wednesday further showed its support for Taiwan by sending an unofficial delegation consisting of a former U.S. senator and two former U.S. deputy state secretaries to Taiwan.

This unfolding great power drama could not have come at a worse time for the government of Biden, whose officials will only hold their hundredth day in office on April 30th. Yet this is likely the point for Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as they want to take advantage before Biden can be assured through policy briefs and by drafting key leadership positions.

These real events also complicate the Biden government’s carefully crafted plans to methodically sequence its actions, arguing that the renewal of the US is a prerequisite for effective global leadership.

Biden’s goal is to suppress Covid-19 through accelerated vaccine distribution, boost economic momentum and competitiveness through $ 4 billion in stimulus and infrastructure spending, and restore relations with key allies, a goal reflected in Biden’s meeting this week with Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide.

The Biden administration is also facing a number of other foreign policy challenges at the same time, ranging from the president’s announcement this week that he would withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by September 11 and efforts to start nuclear talks with Iran, despite the attack on Natanz on Sunday. nuclear enrichment in Tehran last Sunday. facility.

This is a lot for any new president to deal with. How deftly Biden addresses the joint, growing challenge of Russia and China, however, will shape our era.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, award-winning journalist and president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the United States’ most influential think tanks on world affairs. He worked for The Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as a foreign correspondent, assistant managing editor and as the longest-running editor of the European edition of the newspaper. His latest book – “Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth” – was a bestseller of the New York Times and has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter @FredKempe and subscribe to Inflection Points here, which watches the top stories and trends of the past week every Saturday.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @ CNBCopinion on Twitter.