But despite the harsh restrictions, case numbers are not falling as fast as experts had hoped. Deaths continue to rise and public health experts and the government are starting to warn people that the country will be in this fight in the long run.
The new variant, known as B.1.1.7, wreaked havoc in the UK and by the end of 2020 had fueled an increase in cases, despite the fact that a national exclusion was in place. Data showing an increase in cases in younger people suggests that it was mainly because schools remained open, which allowed the variant to spread rapidly.
According to Public Health England, the new strain first emerged in September. By the end of November, scientists began to express concern about the increasing number of infections in Kent in the southeast. The region was a departure, for although affairs throughout the country are generally declining due to national constraints, they do not fall in Kent.
It forced the country from January 5 to a much stricter closure in which people were instructed to stay at home, households were forbidden to mix – inside and out – and everything but essential shops, including most schools, were closed.
For many experts, the decision came too late. “It’s amazing that we seem to be making the same mistakes over and over again – with increasing loss of life,” Dr Julian Tang, clinical virologist at the University of Leicester, commented in the UK’s Science Media Center.
But does the stricter strategy work? The evidence is mixed.
Deadliest period
England reported nearly 70,000 new infections on January 4, the day before the new closure was announced. In terms of the new cases reported, the country’s worst ten days of the entire pandemic occurred between December 29 and January 11, with an average of more than 55,000 new cases each day.
Death soon followed: of the 11 deadliest days of the pandemic, ten occurred between 9 and 18 January. The country has reported more than 1,000 deaths every day, something that has only happened once before.
A few days after the new restrictions came into effect, the number of new cases began to decline gradually – and has continued ever since.
The seven-day moving average of new daily cases, a measure that outperforms deviations such as lower tests on weekends, has fallen from more than 60,000 on January 1 to about 40,000 in recent days. However, it will probably take time before the impact can be felt in hospitals.
“We know there is a delay between the reporting of new cases and any subsequent deaths,” Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, told CNN in an email. “For example, a few percent of newly diagnosed people can end up in the hospital for about 7-14 days today, and then about 1% of today’s cases will die within about 21-28 days,” he added.
The number of people admitted to hospital is still a record high, with 38,000 people in hospitals.
But while the latest figures may offer a glimpse of hope, other studies, including one by researchers at Imperial College London, paint a contrasting picture.
In contrast to the official case numbers, which are based on the number of people being tested and therefore do not include those who are asymptomatic or do not yet have symptoms, the REACT-1 study monitors the current coronavirus infections in the community and is this times more than tested 140,000 people randomly selected.
Steven Riley, author of the study and a professor of infectious disease at Imperial College, told CNN in an email that the figures did not show the kind of significant decline that would be expected if the lockout were strong enough is to reduce the reproduction number. – the value indicates how much the virus spreads: a reproduction rate of more than 1 means that the epidemic is growing. The government said on Friday that the number was between 0.8 and 1, although it warned that it differed across the country.
The study tested samples collected between January 6 and 15 and compared them with mobility data based on the GPS locations of individuals using the Facebook mobile app. The data show a decrease in mobility at the end of December, followed by an increase at the beginning of January when people go back to work, which according to the authors may explain the greater number of people becoming infected in early January.
Riley said that although the study did not show a large drop in infections, it would not be fair to say that the exclusion failed completely. “Our most important point is that we have not observed a sharp decline, which we really need to see.”
The authors further noted in the newspaper that “until the incidence in the community is significantly reduced, health services will remain under extreme pressure and the cumulative number of lives lost during this pandemic will increase rapidly.”
In response to the numbers, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the figures show that the more contagious tensions are spreading “very fast”.
“I think it’s too early to say when we’ll be able to stop some of the restrictions,” Johnson said.
Vallance said early data suggest that although about ten of the 1,000 infected men in their 60s would die from the old variant, it could rise to about 13 or 14 with the new strain.
The government has also come under pressure to compensate people who have to isolate themselves. A government-backed study published in September found that only 18% of people complied with the rules for self-isolation and suggested that financial compensation could increase the number.
The full impact will take a while
While the numbers are being debated and constantly changing, health experts and politicians are asking the public for patience.
The full impact of the shutdown will not be felt for a while, as it will take a long time and much more stay at home to get the latest boom completely under control.
According to estimates by Head’s team, the number of people dying from the disease is likely to remain high and only start declining next month. And while hospital admissions are declining, the number of patients in hospital remains at record levels. Until the number of people discharged is higher than those admitted, the hospitals will run the risk of getting out of bed.
“The daily trend shows that the closure has an effect on the new daily cases,” Head said. “However, it is important to remember that the impact on hospitalizations will only be visible from trends starting the last week of January, and that deaths will decrease during February.”
For now, that means strict restrictions will be in place for some time to come.
Top government officials have repeatedly said it is far too early to speculate on facilitating the closure measures that will now take place until March and possibly into the summer.
“It could very well mean, for example, that any closure should be longer than would be the case with the old variant,” Head said.