Coming to net carbon emissions – and even just negative – is surprisingly achievable and affordable

New analysis provides a detailed blueprint for the US to become carbon neutral by 2050.

Achieving net carbon dioxide emissions from energy and industry by 2050 could be achieved by rebuilding the U.S. energy infrastructure to work primarily on renewable energy, at a net cost of about $ 1 per person per day, according to new research published by the Department of Energy. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), University of San Francisco (USF), and consulting firm Evolved Energy Research.

The researchers created a detailed model of the entire U.S. energy and industrial system to produce the first detailed, peer-reviewed study on how to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world must achieve zero net CO2 emissions by the middle of the century to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change.

The researchers have developed several feasible technological avenues that differ greatly in the residual use of fossil fuels, land use, consumer adoption, nuclear energy and bio-based fuel use, but which share an important set of strategies. “By methodically increasing energy efficiency, switching to electrical technologies, using clean electricity (especially wind and solar power) and using a small amount of carbon capture technology, the United States can achieve relief,” the authors write in ‘ Carbon Neutral Pathways’. for the United States, ”recently published in the scientific journal AGU advances.

The transformation of the infrastructure

“The carbon emissions from the American energy system are fundamentally a transformation of infrastructure,” said Margaret Torn, senior scientist at Berkeley Lab, one of the study’s lead authors. ‘This means that by 2050 we need to build many gigawatts of wind and solar power plants, new transmission lines, a fleet of electric and light trucks, millions of heat pumps to replace conventional furnaces and water heaters, and more energy efficient buildings – as we continue research and innovation of new technologies. ”

In this transition, very little infrastructure will need or need to be replaced ‘early retirement’ before the end of its economic life. “No one is asking consumers to switch off their brand new car for an electric vehicle,” Torn said. “The point is that efficient low-carbon technology should be used when it’s time to replace current equipment.”

The roads studied have net costs ranging from 0.2% to 1.2% of GDP, with higher costs due to certain compromises, such as limiting the amount of land given to solar and wind farms. In the cheapest ways, about 90% of the generation of electricity comes from wind and solar power. One scenario showed that the US could supply all its energy needs with 100% renewable energy (solar, wind and bio-energy), but this would require more food and greater land use.

“We were pleasantly surprised that the cost of the transformation is now lower than in similar studies we did five years ago, although it achieves much more ambitious carbon reduction,” Torn said. “The main reason is that the cost of wind and solar power and batteries for electric vehicles fell faster than expected.”

The scenarios were generated using new energy models, complete with details of both energy consumption and production – such as the entire U.S. construction stock, vehicle fleet, power plants, and more – for 16 geographic regions in the US. Costs were calculated using fossil fuel projections and renewable energy prices from the DOE Annual Energy Outlook and the NREL Annual Technology Baseline report.

The cost figures will continue to be lower if it includes the economic and climate benefits of the carbon dioxide of our energy systems. For example, less dependence on oil will mean less money being spent on oil and less economic uncertainty due to oil price fluctuations. Climate benefits include the avoided effects of climate change, such as extreme droughts and hurricanes, air and water pollution through the burning of fossil fuels, and improved public health.

The economic cost of the scenarios is almost exclusively capital cost of building new infrastructure. But Torn points out that spending is on the rise economically: ‘Everything that builds infrastructure equals jobs and possibly jobs in the US, as opposed to sending money abroad to buy oil in other countries. There is no doubt that there will have to be a well-thought-out economic transition strategy for fossil fuel industries and communities, but there is also no doubt that there are many jobs to build a low-carbon economy. ‘

The next ten years

An important finding of this study is that the actions required in the next ten years are similar, regardless of long-term differences between roads. In the short term, we need to increase the generation and transfer of renewable energy, ensure that all new infrastructure, such as cars and buildings, is carbon-free and that the current natural gas capacity for reliability is maintained for the time being.

‘This is a very important finding. We now do not have to wage a major battle over issues such as the construction of nuclear power plants in the short term, because new nuclear power is not needed to be on a net emission route in the next ten years. Instead, we need to make policies to drive the steps we know are needed now, while accelerating R&D and further developing our options for the choices we have to make in the 2030s, ‘said Jim Williams, associate professor in energy system management, said. at USF and an associate scientist at Berkeley Lab.

The net negative case

Another important achievement of this study is that it is the first published work to provide a detailed roadmap of how the US energy and industrial system could become a source of negative CO2 emissions by the middle of the century, which means that more carbon dioxide is extracted from the atmosphere than added.

According to the study, with higher levels of carbon capture, biofuels and electric fuels, the US energy and industrial system could have a net negative effect on 500 million tons of CO2 removed from the atmosphere annually. (This will require more power generation, land use and transmission between countries to achieve.) The authors calculate the cost of this net negative road at 0.6% of GDP – just slightly higher than the main carbon neutral road cost of 0.4% of GDP . “It’s affordable for society on energy alone,” Williams said.

Combined with increasing CO2 uptake by the country, mainly through changing agricultural and forest management practices, the researchers calculated that the net negative emissions scenario would put the US on track with a global trajectory to reduce CO2 concentrations in the reduce atmosphere to 350 parts per million (ppm). ) at a distance in the future. The end point of 350 ppm of this world orbit has been described by many scientists as necessary to stabilize the climate at a similar level as pre-industrial times.

Reference: “Carbon-Neutral Pathways for the United States” by James H. Williams, Ryan A. Jones, Ben Haley, Gabe Kwok, Jeremy Hargreaves, Jamil Farbes and Margaret S. Torn, January 14, 2021, AGU advances.
DOI: 10.1029 / 2020AV000284

The study was supported in part by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, a United Nations initiative.