Colorado’s “fourth wave” of COVID-19 is not one of the absolute worst spikes in the country, but it’s hard to see where it could go in the second half of April.
Hospitalizations in Colorado of confirmed or suspected COVID-19 rose 33 percent from 18 to Sunday, the 14th-highest increase in the state.
It is nearly as bad as Michigan and Minnesota, where hospitalizations doubled in that time. Yet in the past month, 19 countries have dropped hospitalizations for the virus.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment reported that as of Monday afternoon, 568 people have been hospitalized nationwide with a confirmed or suspected COVID-19. That was an increase of 16 over Sunday, but only four more than what was admitted to the hospital on Saturday.
Beth Carlton, associate professor of environmental and occupational health at the Colorado School of Public Health, said new admissions to the hospital were relatively steady, about 80 a day.
While it’s good news that hospitalizations are not soaring at the moment, we will still need a few days’ data to know if the increases have stopped, she said. It is not uncommon to exceed a few days – days when the numbers flatten out or decrease slightly, although hospitalizations usually increase, or vice versa.
“I think we all hope this is the beginning of a decline, but I would not say it with confidence,” she said.
The increase in Colorado in the past month was also higher than the majority of states. The total number of new COVID-19 infections grew by about 9.5%, which was the 15th highest increase. Michigan also had the unfortunate distinction that they were up here as well, with about 28% more cases than on March 18th.
All states saw an increase because the number is cumulative, but 21 of them kept growth below 5%.
New infections in Colorado appear to have dropped by about 600 compared to the previous week, with 9,927 for the week ending on Sunday. However, it appears that they declined by a small amount in the week ending April 11, but the final result was a modest increase after late reports came in.
Deaths have grown very little in Colorado since last month, but that does not tell much how deadly the fourth wave was for the younger people who were more likely to be hospitalized this time. People dying of COVID-19 today may have been infected as early as a month ago, and it could take another two weeks for their loss to appear in state statistics.
Nor can the numbers say much about the effect of ending most nationwide restrictions and the transition to control and city-level control. It usually takes about two weeks before a policy shift appears in the numbers, Carlton said. It can be difficult to find a pattern at the state level.
Most provinces have chosen to relax their restrictions, but to varying degrees, and it is not clear how many residents will have residents in different parts of the state. Health officials have expressed concern that it may be possible to allow more hospitalizations and deaths if more is mixed while the virus is still widespread.
Hospitalizations rose across much of the Front Range on Monday, with increasing numbers reported in at least eight of the past 14 days in Denver, Arapahoe, Douglas, Larimer and Weld counties. The rate of testing, which has been positive over the past week, has also reached levels in ten provinces around the Front Range, the Highlands and the Western Slope.
Carlton said she was also concerned about the south-central region of the state, which includes provinces of Custer, Fremont, Huerfano, Las Animas and Pueblo. The latest regional model report, released on Wednesday, shows a high distribution rate there. But everyone should be careful and continue to wear their masks and avoid crowds until they are outside their last shot for two weeks, she said.
“Until people are fully vaccinated, they face risks,” she said.
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