COVID-19 outbreaks in schools, colleges, restaurants and churches in Colorado increased three weeks in a row after state restrictions weakened and students began returning to class.
No one has definitively linked changes in state policy to increased outbreaks, but there is a clear pattern. Outbreaks in all four institutions declined until December and early January. They started rising again in the middle of the month, with government data rising on January 20 and the two subsequent Wednesdays.
In most other institutions monitored by the Department of Public Health and Environment in Colorado, the number of outbreaks was stable or varied without clear patterns. The number of outbreaks in nursing homes and relief facilities, where an excessive number of deaths occurred, continued to decline.
The state defines an outbreak as two or more cases linked to a specific place or event. There have been ten or fewer cases of recent outbreaks related to schools, colleges, restaurants and religious facilities.
Schools in the Denver area gradually began bringing back more students during January, and some parts of the state started having their own people faster. Districts and government officials have warned that an increase is likely to result in students returning from distance education.
At the same time, the state began easing restrictions on indoor eateries and other gatherings, beginning with the announcement by Governor Jared Polis that 33 provinces in ‘Level Red’ would move to ‘Level Orange’ on the state electoral framework on 4 January. Indoor dining had to be closed below Level Red, but restaurants were able to open 25% of capacity on the lower level.
Conor Cahill, a spokeswoman for Polis, says state epidemiologists do not view the increase in restaurant outbreaks as a trend.
“The governor is concerned when there is an increase in the spread of this virus, and fortunately, thanks to the perseverance and dedication of Coloradans, outbreaks have been slowly declining since November,” he said.
The state also lifted caps earlier in December on attending worship services, which it classified as essential services. Religious facilities are still needed to keep different households at one distance from each other.
Lisa Miller, a professor of epidemiology at the Colorado School of Public Health, warned against reading too much into outbreak data. Less than 1% of COVID-19 cases have been linked to outbreaks because it is difficult to determine where someone may have been infected, she said.
“It’s a small piece of the whole picture,” she said.
Wednesday’s state data showed the following outbreaks:
- Kindergarten to 12th grade schools: 98 outbreaks, compared to 73 on January 13th. The largest is at Liberty Common Charter School in Fort Collins, with 66 cases.
- Universities: 15 outbreaks, compared to seven. The largest is the ongoing community outbreak at the University of Colorado Boulder, with 2,821 cases.
- Restaurants: 39 outbreaks, compared to 28. The vast majority of cases are related to two In-N-Out locations, where a total of 173 employees were infected.
- Religious facilities: 20 outbreaks, compared to 12. The largest was linked to an event in July hosted by Andrew Wommack Ministries in Teller County, with 154 cases.
An outbreak is considered persistent until four weeks have passed, with no cases linked to it.