Climate change: Coal gives economic recovery from Covid crisis, says IEA

Climate change: Coal gives economic recovery from Covid crisis, says IEA

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In a new report, the International Energy Agency estimates that carbon emissions from energy consumption will increase by 1.5 billion tonnes by 2021, as heavy coal consumption in Asia and especially China outweighs the rapid growth in renewable sources. This would be the second largest annual increase in energy-related emissions in history.

“This is a serious warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate,” said Fatih Birol, chief executive officer, in a statement. “Unless governments around the world quickly begin to reduce emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022.”

The Paris-based group is sounding the alarm before 40 world leaders arrive for a two-day event later this week virtual summit on the climate crisis led by President Joe Biden. Birol calls it a “critical moment to act actively and immediately.”

The UK will announce a stronger target for reducing carbon emissions ahead of the summit, a government source confirmed to CNN Business on Tuesday. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will promise to reduce UK emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

As countries around the world were shut down last year and people were instructed to stay home to curb Covid-19 infections, emissions have dropped dramatically.

But any climate benefit from the pandemic is short-lived. The IEA estimates that global energy demand will rise by 4.6% in 2021 and exceed 2019 levels, fueled by rising energy consumption in developing economies and emerging markets.

Energy-related emissions are expected to end this year just below where they stood in 2019, reversing 80% of the decline seen in 2020.

A revival in coal use is particularly worrying, and demand is expected to peak in 2014 this year.

China is expected to account for 50% of global coal demand. Usage in the United States and Europe is also increasing, but is expected to remain “well below pre-crisis levels”.

Earlier this week, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called on developed countries to phase out coal use by 2030, and to end the construction of new coal-fired power stations.

The expectation is that the demand for electricity will reach its fastest growth in more than a decade.

But there is good news: More than half of the increase in global electricity supply in 2021 will come from renewable sources, driven in part by the growing production of solar and wind energy from China.

The IEA’s estimates are subject to ‘great uncertainty’ given the lack of clarity on the trajectory of Covid-19 infections and vaccinations. For example, if the journey recovers sooner than expected, the demand for energy will increase even further.

– Luke McGee and Sarah Dean contributed to this article.

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