China could drop its birth rate to less than 10 million annually over the next five years if the government does not quickly abolish its policy of limiting families to two children, an expert in the local media was quoted as saying.
China’s total population could also decline in a few years, Dong Yuzheng, director of the Guangdong Academy of Population Development, told Yicai, a Chinese financial news agency.
The number of babies born in China dropped by 580,000 in 2019 to 14.65 million and the birth rate of 10.48 per thousand was the lowest since 1949 when the current methods of collecting data began, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
It has yet to release another figure for last year, though it will usually be released in late February.
The declining birth rate of the country and its rapidly aging society is expected to test its ability to pay for and care for its elderly.
Although China abolished its decades-long policy for one child in 2016, couples have been discouraged from having larger families by the rising costs of health care, education and housing. Economic uncertainties brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic further outweighed the decisions to have children.
Separate data from the Ministry of Public Safety shows that the number of births dropped by 15% last year to 10,035 million births from 11.79 million in 2019.
The ministry may not be counting children in rural areas, says Liu Kaiming, a labor expert in the southern city of Shenzhen, adding that he expects the number of newborns to be between 10 and 14 million by 2020.
“(The number of births) could fall below 10 million next year,” Liu said.
China has also not yet announced the results of a once-a-decade census. It was said earlier that the results will be announced in early April.
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