WASHINGTON – China is working to challenge the US by doubling its nuclear capability, advancing US capabilities in space and expanding its influence abroad, according to a threat assessment by the US intelligence community published on Tuesday, highlighting the dangers of rogue countries facing the non-terrorist threat that once dominated national security thinking.
The authors of the threat assessment, which was announced before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday before testimony by top intelligence officials, note that the order in which topics are presented “does not necessarily indicate their relative importance”, but that the editorial statements are not made in a vacuum. For years, the dangers of an attack on Al Qaeda have led to the threat assessment, and in recent years, the problem of cyberbullying has only first appeared.
Last year, there was no public threat assessment and no public congressional hearing because intelligence officials were concerned about the offense of then-President Donald Trump by delivering statements that conflict with his worldview. In 2019, National Intelligence Director Dan Coats and CIA Director Gina Haspel strongly opposed Trump’s militant group Islamic State, Iran and North Korea. Coats soon had jobs. Haspel remained, but her relationship with the president became uncertain.
This year’s review focuses on ‘superpower competition’, as foreign policy makers like to call it, and specifically the threats posed by four authoritarian opponents to US security: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
“Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang have shown the ability and intention to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies, despite the pandemic,” reads the front page of the document. “China is increasingly a competitive group that is challenging the United States in various fields – especially economically, militarily and technologically – and is pushing to change global standards. Russia is pushing back on Washington where it can use techniques up to and including worldwide. including the use of force. Iran will remain a regional threat with broader malicious influence activities, and North Korea will be a disruptive player on the regional and world stage. “
The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic ‘will continue to hamper governments and societies, fueling humanitarian and economic crises, political unrest and geopolitical competition, as countries such as China and Russia seek to benefit from such means as’ vaccination diplomacy ”. the review says.
The economic and political aftermath of the pandemic “will be felt for years to come.”
Climate change will meanwhile “continue to provoke disease, threaten food and water security and exacerbate political instability and humanitarian crises,” the review said.
Although climate change in the short term does not directly affect US security, it has immediate consequences, the assessment said, “through more intense storms, floods and melting of permafrost. This year we see increasing potential for increases in migration by Central American populations, which is suffering of the economic downturn of the Covid-19 pandemic and extreme weather, including multiple hurricanes in 2020 and a number of years of recurring droughts and storms. ‘
Discussions on cyber threats are scattered throughout the document, suggesting that they are “demonstrably intertwined with threats to our infrastructure and the threats of the foreign malignant influence on our democracy.”
According to the assessment, Russia will continue to undermine American influence, weaken Western alliances and develop military, nuclear, space, cyber and intelligence capabilities.
“Russia presents one of the most serious intelligence threats to the United States by using its intelligence services and instruments of influence to divide Western alliances, maintain its influence in the post-Soviet era, and increase its power around the world,” said the review. say.
According to the assessment, Iran will ” pose a continuing threat to US and related interests in the region ”, and ” government leaders are likely to be reluctant to enter into diplomatic talks with the United States in the short term without sanctions or humanitarian relief or the United States rejoins the nuclear deal in Iran.
“We continue to evaluate that Iran is not currently undertaking the main activities for the development of nuclear weapons that we believe would be necessary to manufacture a nuclear device … However, if Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials are likely to consider options. which ranges from further enriching uranium to 60 percent to design and build a new 40 Megawatt heavy water reactor, ‘the document adds.
On Tuesday, Iran announced that it would enrich uranium to 60 percent, following an apparent explosion in the Natanz nuclear facility that Israel is suspected of orchestrating.
The evaluation reiterates the long-standing view that North Korea is unlikely to give up its nuclear weapons.
Intelligence agencies are reluctant to ever say that a threat has diminished significantly, and this document does not say explicitly about international terrorism. This is done through distraction, noting the ‘spread of the terrorist threat worldwide’, and the fact that ISIS and al-Qaeda have suffered significant losses in recent years. There is no question that one of the organizations could attack the American homeland, a fear that has inspired American national security efforts for years.
And there is no mention of terrorists in Afghanistan in a three-paragraph section on the conflict. One day, Biden’s government leaked the news that the president was planning to withdraw US troops from the country by September.
