Federal health officials on Friday sounded the alarm over a rapidly spreading, much more contagious variant of the coronavirus that is expected to become the dominant source of infection in the country in March, potentially triggering another raging outbreak of cases and deaths.
In a study released Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said its predictions point to outbreaks caused by the new variant could lead to an emerging pandemic this winter. This calls for a doubling of preventive measures, including more intensive vaccination efforts across the country.
It is not known whether the variant is more deadly or that it is worse. But the stern warning – sheltered by limited data on how common the variant first identified in Britain has become – landed in a week where the country’s emerging vaccination campaign was hampered by confusion and limited supplies, as demand below the growing numbers are eligible.
Only 76 cases of the variant have been identified so far in the US, but the actual number is likely to be higher and is expected to turn upwards in the next few weeks, officials said. They emphasized that current mitigation strategies were effective against the new tensions, and urged Americans to be vigilant in wearing face masks, keeping six or more feet away from other people, washing hands frequently, and interacting with people outside their households. reduce, limit contact and avoid crowds.
But increases in cases threaten to paralyze already overcrowded hospitals and nursing homes in many parts of the country. Some are at or almost capacity. Others experienced problems with infection among their staff, causing shortages and increasing the number of patients.
“I want to emphasize that we are very concerned that this tension is more transferable and could accelerate the outbreaks in the US in the coming weeks,” said Dr. Jay Butler, deputy director for infectious diseases at the CDC, said. “We are sounding the alarm and calling on people to realize that the pandemic is not over yet and it is by no means time to throw in the towel.”
“We know what works and we know what to do,” he said.
Covid cases and deaths broke record after record nationwide, with a peak number of deaths, 4400, announced Tuesday. At least 3,973 new deaths and 238,390 new cases were reported Thursday, and the nation is nearing a milestone of 400,000 deaths.
One in 860 Americans has died from Covid-19 in the past year, according to new figures released by the CDC. But the burden of death has not fallen equally on racial, ethnic and geographical regions, and there are concerns that vaccines will not reach the communities hardest hit, where access to health services is limited and mistrust is rampant.
The new variant, called B 1.1.7, was first identified in Britain, where it quickly became the primary source of infections, accounting for as much as 60 per cent of new cases diagnosed in and around London.
It has since been detected in at least 30 countries, including the United States and Canada. In the United States, this is less than 0.5 percent of cases, based on the analysis of a limited number of samples.
Other variants are also thought to be contagious in South Africa and Brazil, but have not yet been identified in the United States. Japanese authorities said this month that they had detected one of the variants in four passengers arriving from Brazil.
The CDC had earlier announced that from January 26, all air passengers arriving in the United States, regardless of vaccination status, must provide proof of a negative result of a coronavirus or Covid test.
In the new report, CDC scientists modeled how fast the variant could spread in the United States, assuming that about 10 to 30 percent of people already have immunity to the virus, and that another million people each week vaccinated, starting this month. .
If the variant is about 50 percent more contagious, as suggested by data from Britain, it will become the largest source of all infections in the United States by March, the model showed. A slow introduction of vaccinations will accelerate the fate.
The variant differs by about 20 mutations from previous versions of the virus, including at least two mutations may contribute to its greater infectivity. On January 13, it was detected in 76 cases from 12 states, but the actual numbers are probably much higher, said dr. Butler said. “CDC expects these numbers to rise in the coming weeks,” he said.
State and local laboratories have committed to sequencing about 6,000 samples per week, a target the agency is expected to reach within three weeks.
Agency officials also warned that standard tests for the virus could miss one of the altered genes in the new variant. This should not be a problem for most laboratory tests, they said, but some antigen tests can produce ‘false negatives’, and missing cases of infection can occur.
“So far we have not found any evidence for that, but we are looking at it more closely,” said Dr. Butler said.
It is not yet clear what makes the new variants contagious. They share at least one mutation, called N501Y, which is thought to be involved. One possibility, according to researchers, is that the mutation may increase the amount of virus in the nose, but not in the lungs, possibly explaining why it is more contagious, but not more deadly.
A higher amount of virus in the nose means that everyone who is infected will expel more virus while talking, singing, coughing or even breathing, says Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.
“It makes the same situations that are now spreading – people who are in the same household, these kind of non-ventilated interior contacts – more likely to spread,” he said.