According to the new model from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, the new coronavirus variant first discovered in the UK could become the predominant strain by March.
The CDC warned on Friday that the B.1.1.7 variant is likely to spread rapidly in the US in the coming months. So far, 76 cases have been identified in ten U.S. states, but scientists warn that the actual number of cases of B.1.1.7 is likely to be higher, as the U.S. lags behind many other countries with its genomic sequence to identify the variants.
The CDC is now trying to expand sequence to detect the variant and other possible mutations.
According to the CDC model, the new strain is likely to catch up with other variants of the disease and dominate by March – although the trajectory of the cases depends on the rate of vaccinations and what other mitigation measures people follow, such as wearing masks.
The US has been hit much harder by Covid-19 than any other country. According to the latest data from the Covid Tracking Project, 3,915 deaths were recorded in the US on Thursday, bringing the total death toll to 379,451. Nearly 129,000 people are currently in hospital with the virus.
The CDC model found that if there were no vaccines and the spread of the virus continued to accelerate, the number of cases would continue to rise during the spring, but only peak in April.
Assuming the US can vaccinate 1 million people a day, the number of new cases will slowly decline until at least May. If mitigation measures slow down the spread enough so that each infected person infects an average of 0.9 other people, the numbers could drop by almost 85 percent in the summer.
“Now more than ever before, it is important to slow down the spread,” the CDC warned.
US President-elect Joe Biden on Friday gave further details on his plans for responding to the coronavirus pandemic, as he prepares to take on deaths and hospitalizations next week due to the outbreak in the US, which is nearing record highs. He promised to oversee 100 vaccinations in his first 100 days.
The plan includes new rules that allow retired medical professionals to administer doses as part of an effort to increase the number of people doing vaccinations. It will also use members of the National Guard to deliver the vaccine and train people on how to administer it, although it is less likely to ask troops to inject people themselves, as one health care provider asked this week.
Mr. Biden has also undertaken to use the Defense Production Act, under which the government can force businesses to manufacture certain items, to resolve bottlenecks in the manufacturing process, such as a lack of glass bottles.
The president-elect on Friday morning named new members of his coronavirus task force, including David Kessler, a former head of the Food and Drug Administration, who will lead the new government’s efforts to distribute vaccines.
As chief scientific adviser to the task force, Dr. Kessler will help lead Operation Warp Speed, the federal government’s vaccination distribution program. He will replace Moncef Slaoui, the former CEO of GlaxoSmithKline.
Dr. Kessler led the FDA from 1990 to 1997 under Presidents George HW Bush and Bill Clinton.
Mr. Biden said in a statement: “We are running a race against time, and we need a comprehensive strategy to contain this virus quickly.”