After more than a month of coronavirus cases at the national level, the numbers started to flatten and even creep up again, prompting a serious warning from US leaders in the field of public health on Friday to remain cautious in the coming weeks.
The situation was brighter in California and the Bay Area, where cases and hospitalizations are still declining and provinces have begun easing public health restrictions. And the bad national briefing was neutralized Friday afternoon by a key federal advisory group recommending the Johnson & Johnson emergency vaccine. The Food and Drug Administration is expected to give permission as early as Friday night.
Collectively, national, state and local reports have highlighted the plight of the pandemic, even as vaccinations increase.
“The latest data suggest that these declines may decrease and possibly still a very high number may decrease,” said dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said during an information session of the White House on Friday morning. “We at CDC see this as a very worrying risk in the job,”
She warned that a more transmissible variant of the virus first detected in Britain, along with emerging variants in New York and California that also appear to be more easily spread, could be predominant in the country by mid-March and the recent increase already can cause. .
“We may now see the initial effects of these variants in the most recent data,” Walensky said. She added that “things are bad” with the pandemic, emphasizing the caution that reopens the economy. The current numbers remain higher than the peaks hit last summer and spring.
“This is not the time to relax restrictions,” Walensky said.
Despite the worrying trends nationwide, California is earning profits against the coronavirus. Business is still declining, but at a somewhat less aggressive pace than earlier in the month. The state reported about 5,500 cases a day this week, down about 20% from the previous week. Bay Area cases have declined by 16%, to about 770 cases per day this week. At the national level, business has climbed above 70,000 a day over the past three days, an increase of a few days in the range of 55 to 65,000.
Provinces in California are starting to open up parts of the economy and reduce restrictions. Indoor dining has resumed in the San Mateo and Marin counties of the Bay, and San Francisco and Santa Clara County officials said they expect to enter the less restricted red level next week and plan to reopen indoor restaurants next week.
Forty-seven of the 58 provinces – which make up 96% of the population – are in the most restrictive press level. Government Gavin Newsom said during an information session on Friday that another eight provinces are likely to move to the less restricted red level next week.
“It happens very, very fast,” Newsom said. “It simply came to our notice then. We really see that bright light at the end of the tunnel because of all your hard work. ”
Public health officials in San Francisco said in a statement Friday that they will continue to monitor matters closely as they reopen parts of the economy, and that they will expect an increase in numbers as more activities resume. Santa Clara County officials said the benefits of partial reopening outweigh the risks at this point, and cases continue to decline. They also said they would closely monitor the case and hospitalization numbers.
Dr. George Rutherford, an expert in infectious diseases at UCSF, said the reopening in the Bay Area is acceptable as the number of cases and other statistics continues to improve after the long winter push.
“What the state is proposing seems sensible and the public health departments in the Bay are going along with it,” he said. He noted that three factors make people comfortable with the slow reopening: the vaccine, continued social distance and wearing a mask, and naturally gained immunity in communities that were hit hard.
But despite the encouraging decline in business, Rutherford agrees with Walensky’s comments, saying Californians should not relax too much and let their hats down.
Vaccinations are a miracle, but they are a slow-moving miracle. “We will only be out of the forest before we have vaccinated all the population,” he said. “Until then and even a while after, we need to follow the guidelines for public health on masks and social distance.”
Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley, took an even more cautious tone. He noted that the seven-day average for new cases of coronavirus in the Bay has apparently flattened over the past few days, a potentially worrying sign that the recent deductions are over and that things are stabilizing at a high rate.
“I would not say it is worrying, but it is something we need to keep an eye on,” he said. Provinces base their plans to reopen on two weeks ‘data, which is part of the state’s strategy to ensure things are heading in the right direction,’ so if this continues, it’s going to make them stand still and it should let them break, ”Swartzberg said.
Swartzberg also stressed the importance of this next month in terms of the significant progress against the virus. He advised that more people be vaccinated before provinces reopen, especially with variants that appear to be more contagious, now spreading widely. More than half of the cases in most California counties are now caused by a new homemade variant, according to recent studies.
‘We’re in a race with the variants. We want to get as many people vaccinated as possible so that the variants can not have a big effect on the cases of people who become infected, ”Swartzberg said. ‘That’s why the health departments should only try to keep the lid on things for another month. The vaccine will be fairly available in April. ”
On Friday, government officials said they were consolidating vaccinations under a single state system. Yolanda Richardson, secretary of government’s operations, has been eligible for vaccine in all provinces since Monday. This means, for example, that teachers are eligible to be vaccinated in all provinces, she said.
Throughout the month, officials have been trying to make the state MyTurn, the online portal and phone appointment sign-up system, the one “front door” for people to discuss vaccinations.
Beginning Monday, California provinces will offer a three-week preview of the number of vaccines they can expect, Newsom said. He expected a boost in supply pending the federal authorization of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine – potentially more than 380,000 doses as early as next week.
“There is bright light at the end of the tunnel,” Newsom said.
San Francisco Chronicle staff writer Catherine Ho contributed to this report.
Aidin Vaziri and Meghan Bobrowsky are writers of San Francisco Chronicle staff. Email: [email protected] [email protected]