Two NFC teams kicked off the 2021 quarterback carousel ahead of Super Bowl LV thanks to the Lions and Rams’ flashy exchange of Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff. A third NFC team – and another big QB trade – may not be far behind. While many believed the Eagles had largely hired new coach Nick Sirianni to put former MVP candidate Carson Wentz at the center, NFL Network reported Thursday that Philadelphia has begun listening to offers for its alleged dissatisfied signal caller.
There is a chance that the Eagles will never get the offer they want and that they will have an awkward, if not messy, return by Wentz in 2021. There is also an argument Philly should not buy the QB at all, with the option to review a succession plan in 2022. But as some have speculated, leaks from the team calls are unlikely to emerge even if there are no real trade talks underway, and / or Wentz is not committed to forcing the Eagles’ hand for a split.
A day after ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested so much and said that Wentz would prefer a new start elsewhere, but not move unless the Eagles receive what they believe is ‘fair value’, the big question focuses precisely on: fair value. What is it in Wentz’s case?
Wentz’s projected trade value
Unlike Stafford, who signed a mutual agreement with Detroit to find a new home and a longer, more proven track record, Wentz is a bit of a mystery. His 2020 regression was historic for a team now in full swing, and his $ 128 million contract is just as frightening as the one the Rams dropped with Goff. But he is also only 28 with four good – and sometimes wonderful – other seasons behind him. Then he’s just one of, oh, a dozen different established entrees that would be available in an unprecedented QB market.
Schefter estimated this week that the Eagles probably want a minimum draft in the first round in exchange for Wentz. This would be ideal, both optically and from a grid building point of view. But it feels terribly unlikely unless the Eagles choose their own choice. Wentz has always been an outstanding talent compared to Goff, whose big contract necessitates that the Rams pay more than expected to acquire Stafford, but only because the Eagles will not pay anyone to sign Wentz’s deal on a accepting similar way (and marking our words: they do not want to) does not mean that its market is bursting at the seams.
In the wake of the unexpected Goff-Stafford deal, creativity is probably key here. If the Eagles actually move Wentz, chances are it will not be a traditionally structured this-for-that-exchange. Maybe it involves multiple choices from both sides, or a player or two as well. But if you’re looking for a possible reference, it seems that Kevin Kolb is the best comparison to Wentz – in rough age, experience, upside down and contract situation – handed over to the Cardinals by the Eagles in 2011. ; and Alex Smith, who was traded from the 49ers to the Chiefs in 2013.
If this is not yet clear to you, these are imperfect comparisons. Wentz is not Kolb or Smith; all three have or have had different careers and playing styles. But it’s not easy to find many trading examples of similar established QBs – NFL teams prefer to retain or build up young signal callers, but do not trade them away! Here’s a look:
QB: Kevin Kolb
Trade for: Second pick for the second round, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Kolb was 26 years old at the time of his trade, two years younger than Wentz, and had a surprisingly comparable contract; he joined Arizona with only one year left for an extension of $ 12.25 million, which would make him the NFL’s 10th highest paid QB this season. (Wentz would cost an acquiring team $ 25.4 million in 2021, or the 12th highest QB cap, but could be cut to $ 6.7 million in 2022, or $ 19 million in 2023). Kolb was much more unknown and left Philly with just seven careers, but had just lost his job to Michael Vick, in part due to injury.
QB: Alex Smith
Trade for: Second round draft choice, conditional (second round) choice
Smith was 29 at the time of his trade, just a year older than Wentz, and also had a number of injury histories of a few years after being a high first player. His cap in 2013, when he was treated, was significantly lower – $ 8.5 million, or the 16th highest among QBs – but he also just lost his job due to a younger double threat in Colin Kaepernick. He had started 75 games up to that point, not far from Wentz’s 68.
Kolb was sold as a development piece, while Smith was sold as a recycling project. The Eagles could sell Wentz conceivably as something in between. Either way, the compensation here is key: getting something like a second round draft pick, plus a secondary asset, like another choice or potential appetizer, feels like a realistic ceiling for a move in this off-season. If the team is convinced it’s not enough, Wentz might be back. But the floor can easily be much lower: it is reasonable to expect that some offerings, based on other available QBs, as well as Wentz’s regression over the past two years, would look more a single middle round.
“Its value will depend on the number of serious suitors,” said Joel Corry, CBS Sports contributor and former agent and hood expert. “I can not see Philly doing a Brock Osweiler-type salary drop. Nick Foles went to Chicago for a fourth round of compensatory selection. Philly would like more. Personally, I would not choose a first or second round based on the regression of this season. The best chance is to be a conditional choice in 2022 that could increase to a first round, based on the performance of Wentz and / or the acquiring team in 2021. “
Probable landing sites
Long shots:
- Carolina Panthers: They are looking for a veteran upgrade, but going from Teddy Bridgewater to Wentz may not be important enough as Carolina can only choose cheaper upside down in the draft.
- Las Vegas Raiders: Just as solid as the Derek Carr was, Jon Gruden is more likely to swing for a veteran successor at QB than a draft, and he and general manager Mike Mayock, a Philly native, are big fans of Wentz.
- New York Jets: Former Eagles CEO Joe Douglas knows Wentz well from his time in Philadelphia, and the Jets have enough leeway to take up his deal, but why wouldn’t they rather take their own guy into the draft?
- San Francisco 49ers: Like Carolina, they are looking for a better veteran arm, and Wentz’s athletics will definitely intrigue Kyle Shanahan, though it’s hard to say he would be an easy sale of Jimmy Garoppolo.
- Washington Soccer Team: They’ll probably call every available QB, and although the Eagles have traded a franchise name to Washington before (see: McNabb, Donovan), they do not want him to see him play his career twice a year.
Favorites:
- Chicago Bears: A reunion of Nick Foles will take Wentz’s dramatic career in its full direction, but we already know the Bears are hungry for a new QB, and they both have a GM in Ryan Pace that Wentz previously targeted and the QB’s old position coach from 2017.
- Denver Broncos: If John Elway still maintains the final say on the roster, it may be more likely, but Denver is always a great place for QB veteran acquisitions, and there is enough youth and defense to justify a gamble.
- Indianapolis Colts: The pass that has been beaten to death marks Indy all the subjects now that Stafford is out of the picture: they are loaded with money, they are not willing to get a top rookie QB, and they are ready to compete now under Wentz’s thing. former attacking coordinator in Frank Reich, is believed to be one of the QB’s most trusted NFL mentors. It helps Indy is a more relaxed market.
- New England Patriots: Bill Belichick is never someone to shy away from big-win projects; the Pats need a potential long-term solution and have the money to swing big, and Howie Roseman, GM, trades with New England per tonne.