Flyhalf Darrell Henderson (27), flyhalf, loose for a touchdown while Byron Murphy (33), Arizona Cardinals corner, strives during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, December 6, 2020, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo / Rick Scuteri)
Win and they are in.
The Arizona Cardinals dug themselves a hole on Saturday by losing to the San Francisco 49ers and placing their playoff hopes in the hands of others. But after games on Sunday, it’s back to a simple formula.
All they have to do to win the NFL playoff game is win the Los Angeles Rams this coming Sunday to make the 9-6 division rival jump.
A win for Arizona (8-7) would tie both teams to 9-7 records to end the regular season. By splitting their head-to-head matches, the Cardinals will possess the break-even point with a better NFC West division record.
Arizona will be the sixth seeded if it wins and the Chicago Bears fall in the week of the Green Bay Packers. The Cardinals will be the seventh seed if they win and the Bears also win because Chicago has a break-even point over Arizona.
What is the chance that the Cardinals will beat the Rams to win the playoffs?
Here are the latest projections from ESPN, FiveThirtyEight and Las Vegas strangers after Rams quarterback Jared Goff was ruled out due to his thumb injury last week.
It is expected that these numbers will be able to adjust again as soon as the status of Cardinals full-back Kyler Murray becomes clearer, working through a lower leg injury.
ESPN
On Monday morning, Arizona has a 40.7% chance of beating the Rams according to the Football Power Index (FPI).
The odds by Tuesday morning actually dropped to 37.4% after Monday night’s soccer game between the Bills and Patriots. We recommend that a 38-9 victory for Buffalo had the formula to judge Arizona’s loss to New England harder.
FPI does take into account the absence of quarter. Goff’s backup, John Wolford, has only limited last season’s preseason games, and considering he’s how bad Goff has played lately, it’s perhaps also in the declining Cardinals’ chances.
FiveThirtyEight
Compared to ESPN, the website was increasingly in favor of the Cardinals’ chance of winning on the winning path, giving them a 49% chance of beating the Rams from Monday.
By Tuesday, Arizona had a 6% bump to make it a slight favorite with a 55% chance of reaching the national season after a win.
Odds
Las Vegas’ series at stake opened in favor of Los Angeles by -4 to -5 and has yet to be updated, after Goff was ruled out by the Rams.
The availability of Murray is likely to have some weight on the final chance at the game.
