Chad Henne was the most dissimilar of the NFL playoff heroes last week. The Kansas City Chiefs rugby quarterback has hit just 19 yards since 2014. Yet, in a critical third game against the Cleveland Browns, Henne somehow scrambled for 13 of the 14 yards he had to convert. Then, in the middle of color commentator Tony Romo ensure football watches world that Henne was merely trying to pull the Browns offside with a hard score, Henne executed a flawless psych-out game at 4-and-short to clinch a trip to the AFC Championship.
What makes Patrick Mahomes so wonderful? | FiveThirtyEight
The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champion, the Super Bowl favorite on preseason (according to Vegas and the FiveThirtyEight predictions), the AFC’s No. 1 seeded and current co-favorite to win Super Bowl LIV. But their season could have ended last week if they had not become happy.
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The Chiefs were in trouble when the starter Patrick Mahomes was knocked out of the game with a suspected concussion. After all, the greatness of Mahomes was the driving force behind an offense that ended three seasons in a row in the top three of the Football Outsiders’ Offensive Defensive Adjusted Value (DVOA). As favorite forwards, the Chiefs ‘probability in ESPN’s model never dropped below 77.2 percent, but to cling to a five-point lead with a rugby quarterback in a playoff game feels like being on the verge of’ to hang a wreath.
That close shave against the Browns looked like a high-profile return from their 17-14 return over the humble Atlanta Falcons in Week 16. And their three-point victory over the New Orleans Saints a week earlier. The eventual 5-11 Denver Broncos led the Chiefs for much of their Week 13 game, the Las Vegas Raiders made them sweat in Week 11, and they beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 9 by just 2.
Although the Chiefs finished 14-2, they still did not feel as dominant as during the 12-4 campaign last year. In fact, in the back half of their regular season, the Chiefs passed 7-1, despite outscoring their opponents by only 10 points. If you win so many games by 1.25 points, you’re in luck.
As Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight wrote at the halfway point of the season, the measuring point differential via Pythagoras’ expectation is one of the best ways we can judge how happy (or unhappy) a football team was. At that point, the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers won 2.3 more games than their point difference would indicate, making them the fourth happiest 8-0 team since 1960. “If a team wins more than the formula says’ it had to ‘,’ Paine wrote: ‘it usually means winning an extraordinary number of tournament matches, which may not be sustainable in the future.’
How lucky were the Chiefs by the same method in the last eight games of the regular season? The happiest:
Since the middle of the season, the Chiefs have been very lucky
NFL teams with the largest gap between actual and expected record (based on Pythagoras’ expectation *) over the last eight games since 1978, since 1978
| Marks | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Record | Score | Allowed | Pythag W. | Gap versus Exp. |
| 2020 | Chiefs | 7-1 | 220 | 210 | 4.2 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | Cowboys | 7-1 | 185 | 173 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 1989 | Oilers | 5-3 | 154 | 214 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| 2008 | Dolphins | 7-1 | 174 | 154 | 4.6 | +2.4 |
| 2006 | Chargers | 8-0 | 244 | 169 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 1999 | Colts | 7-1 | 200 | 171 | 4.7 | +2.3 |
| 1994 | Giants | 6-2 | 127 | 133 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 1996 | Jaguars | 6-2 | 174 | 182 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 2008 | Bengal | 4-3-1 | 100 | 147 | 2.3 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | Dolphins | 6-2 | 190 | 198 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
This year, Chiefs have outperformed their team in Pythagoras over the past eight games better than any other team since the NFL switched to a 16-game schedule in 1978. Of the 1,241 teams that played a full schedule for the second half of eight games, no one was as lucky as the Chiefs.
[What Makes Patrick Mahomes So Great]
At halftime, the Chiefs were not as happy as the Steelers – but with 1.3 wins more than expected, they exceeded their Pythagorean expectations better than all five other teams. After the happiest series in the modern era, they end up as the third happiest team ever to play a 16-game season:
The Chiefs’ full season was pretty happy
NFL teams with the largest gap between the actual and the expected record (based on the Pythagorean expectation *) over a regular season since 1978
| Marks | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Record | Score | Allowed | Pythag W. | Gap versus Exp. |
| 1992 | Colts | 9-7 | 216 | 302 | 5.0 | +4.0 |
| 2012 | Colts | 11-5 | 357 | 387 | 7.2 | +3.8 |
| 2020 | Chiefs | 14-2 | 473 | 362 | 10.5 | +3.5 |
| 2004 | Steelers | 15-1 | 372 | 251 | 11.5 | +3.5 |
| 2019 | Packers | 13-3 | 376 | 313 | 9.7 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | Raiders | 12-4 | 416 | 385 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 2020 | Bruines | 11-5 | 408 | 419 | 7.7 | +3.3 |
| 2009 | Colts | 14-2 | 416 | 307 | 10.8 | +3.2 |
| 1999 | Titans | 13-3 | 392 | 324 | 9.8 | +3.2 |
| 2011 | Packers | 15-1 | 560 | 359 | 11.9 | +3.1 |
The Chiefs, of course, did not only been happy. Not only did they have the second most effective offense in the NFL by DVOA this regular season, but they were also the second most consistent from week to week. They led the NFL in offensive yards and finished sixth in offense.
The problem was on the other side of the ball.
At first glance, the Chiefs’ defense was not bad; they finished tied for 10th in points allowed and 16th in yards. But according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, they had the worst NFL defense in the NFL, allowing a whopping 76.6 percent of opponents to reach the red zone. The Chiefs finished 22nd in the defensive DVOA and 24th in the DVOA, meaning they were less effective later in the season.
Andy Reid, head coach of the Chiefs, and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy apparently know this. Although their offense equaled the fourth least number of slides in the league, they ran more times per ride and won more yards per ride than any other team. Despite their reputation as a high-flying, highly regarded attack built around Mahomes’ big arm, the Chiefs were tied for the third longest average possession time per ride.
[Why Did NFL Teams Score So Much This Season?]
That explains the sky-high offensive DVOA combined with relatively close, low-scoring games: the Chiefs use their consistency and skill in attack to keep their defense off the field. Of course, if you let opponents hang from the underdog, they also run the chance to beat.
The Steelers fell back to earth in the second half of the season; they have lost four of their last five games in the regular season and were jumped out of the playoffs by the Browns in the first round. The Chiefs could manage to get upset by the same Browns team – but they will probably need all their skills and lucky to repeat as both AFC and Super Bowl champions.
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