Calls for boycotts increase, but China sees retaliation

A journalist looks at an exhibition for the Beijing Winter Olympics 2022 in Yaqing District on February 5, 2021 in Beijing, China.

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Countries and companies outside China are under increasing pressure to boycott the Beijing Winter Olympics next year, but China will not react to react, Eurasia Group says for political risks.

“Western governments and businesses are under increasing pressure from China’s human rights and political critics to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing,” according to Eurasia Group analysts.

The Games must take place between 4 and 20 February.

“China will punish countries that boycott the Games, with political sanctions and retaliation, but with a much greater seriousness in the athletic boycott scenario,” they said in a report published Thursday.

“If a company does not boycott the Games, it is damaging the reputation of Western consumers, but if it does, it could be shut down outside the Chinese market.

“Fighters have focused on Beijing’s targeted repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, which some Western governments have called ‘genocide’,” the report said. “Calls to avoid what activists label the ‘Genocide Games’ will increase as the opening ceremony approaches, increasing the risks for governments, companies and investors – whether they decide to boycott or not.”

Last month, the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States issued a joint statement accusing the Chinese government of inflicting an “extensive repression” on the Uyghur people, including detention camps, forced labor and forced sterilization. .

China has repeatedly denied allegations of forced labor and other abuses in Xinjiang. The Foreign Ministry last month called such allegations ‘malicious lies’ to smear China and frustrate China’s development.

Businesses were also caught in the crossfire.

At the end of March, H&M came across China due to a statement – reportedly from last year – in which the Swedish retailer said it was “deeply concerned” about reports of forced labor in Xinjiang.

Supporters of the Olympic boycott argue that it is ‘necessary to punish China for its systemic discrimination against ethnic minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang, the suppression of political freedoms in Hong Kong and hostility to self-government in Taiwan’, the Eurasia report said.

Three types of boycott

Eurasia set out three possible scenarios: a diplomatic boycott, an athletic boycott or a so-called ‘excessive scenario’.

1. Diplomatic boycott

The most likely scenario – with a 60% probability – is that the US joins at least one other Western country in a so-called diplomatic boycott of the Games.

” A diplomatic boycott is defined here as the downgrading of the government or not sending government representatives to the Olympics and taking other sincere steps to deny Beijing the spotlight as host, ” the analysts explained.

Eurasia has said that the US, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia will be the possible participants in a diplomatic boycott, with the possibility that some European countries could join.

In Asia, however, US partners such as Japan, India and South Korea – which have “more complex political dynamics” or deeper economic ties with China – are not expected to join such a boycott.

According to Eurasia, the diplomatic approach is the least drastic scenario.

2. Athletic boycott

In this scenario, with a probability of 30%, one or more Western countries could prevent their athletes from participating in the Games, perhaps by applying domestic political pressure. An economic boycott is defined as the ban on American spectators, broadcasters and sponsors.

“Athletic and economic boycotts, which are harder for the audience to ignore, would force even heavier retaliation from Beijing, which could potentially lead to a diplomatic freeze and wider consumer boycotts against Western brands,” Eurasia analysts said.

3. ‘Boycott lite’

This is an extraordinary scenario where tensions between the West and China are easing, and there will be ‘soft political statements about the Games’, but no formal boycott, analysts say as a ‘boycott lite’.

This is the least likely scenario and has only a 10% chance of happening, they said, adding: “There is currently little reason for optimism about the trajectory of Sino-Western relations.”

Here, heads of state may refuse to attend the Games and quote the scheduling of conflict or other non-political excuses. “Rhetoric will fall far short of an enthusiastic endorsement of Beijing as host, but there will be no explanation for a boycott and no representation of a united Western position,” the report said.

Setback from China?

A boycott of the Olympics would reduce “any soft power dividend” that Chinese President Xi Jinping hoped to win from the event, giving Beijing a platform to promote its global status among local public and a positive image to billions of foreign viewers around the world, ‘said Eurasia analysts.

“Beijing will surely retaliate against countries involved in boycotts,” analysts said. “Beijing’s immediate response to a diplomatic boycott would likely be a reciprocal boycott of Western events and sanctions against prominent lawyers.”

Consumer companies based outside China are increasingly trying to strike a balancing act – on the one hand an image of concern about human rights to consumers outside China, while on the other hand trying to prevent them from being shut down outside the massive market of China.

“If a business does not boycott the Games, it is damaging reputation among Western consumers. But if it does, it could be shut down outside the Chinese market,” analysts said.

Due to the high international profile of the Games, retaliation in China could be ‘even worse’ than the current removal of H & M’s commercial presence on the Chinese internet, they said.

However, analysts say most businesses are likely to choose to participate in the Olympics, as ‘the potential cost of losing access to the Chinese market is likely to outweigh concerns about a Western consumer weather’, Eurasia predicts likely to be short.

CNN’s Arjun Kharpal contributed to this report.

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