Bucs-Packers, Bills-Chiefs picks, schedule, odds, injuries, predictions, more for AFC and NFC Championships

The conference championship games of the NFL playoffs have arrived, and both begin Sunday. The fifth-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the leading Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game, and then the Buffalo Bills will face no. 2 in Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The winners advance to Super Bowl LV on February 7th.

We look at both title games. Our NFL Nation reporters give us the keys to the games, a bold prediction for each game and the final score.

In addition, ESPN Stats & Information provides statistics you need to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) contains the numbers with a match rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Chalk’s Dave Bearman is handing out helpful nuggets and NFL analyst Matt Bowen is also pointing to an important game to watch. It’s all here to get you ready for an exciting weekend of NFL playoffs.

Jump to a match:
TB – GB | BUF-KC

3:05 PM ET | fox
Match rating: 96.3 | Spread: GB -3 (51.5)

What to look out for: If there’s anything to tackle in Matt LaFleur’s extremely successful two-year career as the Packers’ coach, it might be a slow step to adjust. When these teams met in Week 6, the Bucs played 61% of fullback Aaron Rodgers’ setback, and Rodgers had his only multi-interception game this season. And in general, the more teams played against Rodgers over the past two years, the better they performed. LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what comes in terms of coverage and how they plan for it will determine their level of success against a tough defense in Tampa Bay. – Rob Demovsky

Bold prediction: Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady will not be thrown to wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown or Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Brate, or quarterbacks Ronald Jones II or Leonard Fournette. No, it’s going to wide receiver Tyler Johnson. The newcomer selected from the fifth round from Minnesota had only one catch shot against the Saints last week, but the 15-yard turn on the perimeter was masterful. The only reason we no longer talk about Johnson is the depth map on which he is buried. He has the ability to make tough catches in high pressure situations, and he will do it again Sunday. – Jenna Laine

Able to know: The two biggest factors in Brady’s performance all season were pressure and the vertical play. In 13 wins over the course of the season (including playoffs), he averaged 1.1 bags per game, seeing pressure on 14% of his backsacks and an 82 QBR. But in five losses, the bags jumped to 2.2 per game, his pressure rate climbed to 27% and his QBR split almost in half (44). And as for the deep ball, consider this: on passes thrown more than 20 meters into the field over the 18-match team, he hit 45% for 11 times and no interception in victories, but only 21% for ‘ a single score and five points in the losses.

Bowen’s bypass key: How will Tampa Bay keep Davante Adams, wide receiver, in check? It will start at the line of combat in Front Page 1, with Carlton Davis, Buccaneers cornerback, trying to use his height and physical qualities to disrupt the release of Adams. If he can’t, Davis ‘lack of recovery speed in the face of Adams’ sudden separation ability will cause the Bucs problems. Read more.

What’s at stake: A win for the Buccaneers will be the first non-division champion to reach the Super Bowl since the Packers in 2010. It will also feature Brady’s 10th Super Bowl appearance, spanning three decades. However, Rodgers only played in one Super Bowl. And after Rodgers lost his last three NFC Championship games and was 1-3 over his career in this game, Rodgers tries to avoid becoming just the third QB to score less than two wins and lose more than three in conference title games (Ken Stabler) and Donovan McNabb are both 1-4).

Injuries: Buccaneers | Packers

Betting nugget: Brady is tied 9-4 and 6-7 against the spread in conference championship games. The bottom is 8-5 in those games, including 7-2 in its last nine. Read more.

Laine’s choice: Buccaneers 26, Packers 24
Demovsky’s choice: Packers 31, Buccaneers 17
FPI forecast: GB, 53.2% (average 1.1 points)

Home crowd: Last week’s playoff game at Lambeau Field was attended by 8,456. With possibly more guests from players and coaches from both teams in the stadium this week, the expected attendance at the ballpark is 8,500-9,000. This is about 10-11% of the 81,441 capacity at Lambeau.

Matchup must read: Finally, Rodgers vs. Brady: 13 years in the playoffs … ‘Too much information’ never enough for the Packers ‘dominant offense … WR Brown (knee) is a call for Bucs … Award: Packers’ receivers are worthy once and for all … Bucs have beaten Rodgers before, but change the formula? … Rodgers does not feel extra pressure and says his future is a beautiful mystery ‘

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18:40 ET | CBS
Match rating: 92.3 | Spread: KC -3 (53.5)

What to look out for: Will Patrick Mahomes (concussion protocol) play Chiefs? This is the question in everyone’s mind, with backup Chad Henne starting when Mahomes is gone. But with or without Mahomes, the Chiefs game will be something to watch. Kansas City rushed to a season-high 245m against Buffalo in Week 6, when the Bills played their safe deep on many snaps and were determined not to let Tyreek Hill and other receivers beat them deep. They will definitely change strategies this time, but at what cost? The Chiefs last played just one passing game of more than 22 yards. Can the bills effectively delay the Chiefs’ running game while still limiting the number of big passes? – Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Substitute Josh Allen will cross 350 passing yards and wide receiver Stefon Diggs will turn in his third consecutive game with 100 yards and a tee shot. And a little brave, the Bills will not only win, but also thoroughly surpass the Chiefs in their own backyard and beat Buffalo’s first ticket to the Super Bowl since the 1993 season. – Marcel Louis-Jacques

Able to know: The Wissels have fallen back to pass 73% of the time this post-season, and only one team has ever reached a conference title game that has passed more frequently – the Patriots of 2015 (83%), who finished that season in the AFC championship lost. Buffalo won by just 32 running yards last week – the fourth least ever in a playoff game, according to the Elias Sports Bureau – and Allen is currently leading the team on the ground by 57 yards over two post-season games. The Bills have averaged 64.0 running yards per game this season, less than all but one team that has ever reached the Super Bowl; the 1999 Rams averaged 41.0.

Bowen’s bypass key: Watch for the Chiefs’ defense to show pressure and turn around to play Cover 2 ‘robber’, with safety Tyrann Mathieu as defender in the middle hole. It allows the Chiefs to make Allen work with late movement, but it also allows Kansas City to play zone coverage with Mathieu lying in the weeds as a middle of the field, to steal a burglar . . Read more.

What’s at stake: The Chiefs aim to become the first Super Bowl champion since the Patriots from 2003-04, the longest stretch in NFL history without a recurring champion. They are the 12th defending Super Bowl champion to host a conference championship, and the previous 11 teams passed 10-1 (the only one lost by the 49ers in 1990). The Bills, meanwhile, are trying to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since losing four straight over the 1990-93 seasons. They have not won a title since the 1965 AFL Championship, and their 0-4 record in the Super Bowls is tied for most games with the Vikings without a win.

Injuries: Bills | Chiefs | Latest on Mahomes

Betting nugget: The Chiefs have been 1-8 against the spread in the last nine games (8-1 extremely), and they are 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games. Read more.

Louis-Jacques’ choice: Bills 31, Chiefs 28
Teicher’s choice: Chiefs 27, Bills 22
FPI forecast: KC, 58.3% (average 2.7 points)

Home crowd: The Chiefs kept their attendance numbers at or below 22% at Arrowhead Stadium (76,416 total capacity) this season, with their largest crowd last week against the Browns (16,730). Expect a similar number at the AFC Championship Game.

Matchup must read: Bills could justify negotiating Mahomes ‘choice by reaching Super Bowl … For Chiefs’ Reid is ‘every discount’, ‘even at fourth-and-1 … How serious is Davis’ ankle injury? The biggest questions in the AFC title match … Mahomes practices in a limited capacity, stays in a concussion protocol