The growing number of cases of the highly contagious coronavirus variant first identified in Britain raises concerns about a future boom in Southern California, one of the country’s two hotspots of the worrying new strain.
Scientists are increasingly concerned that it is essential to keep coronavirus transmission low and speed up vaccinations, saying it is possible that hospital systems could be overwhelmed again if the UK variant goes out of control. The British variant has been identified in 32 states, with Florida having at least 147 and California at least 113.
The British variant – officially known as B.1.1.7 – is expected to become the dominant variant within a few weeks; LA County officials announced the second confirmed case of the variant Saturday, which they say is “spreading across the country.” At least two cases have been identified in the province of San Bernardino.
San Diego County has California’s largest group of known cases of B.1.1.7 – at least 109 confirmed cases and 44 additional cases are epidemiologically linked to known cases, officials said last week. Health authorities in San Diego County last week announced the first death related to B.1.1.7, a 71-year-old man suspected of being infected with the new strain, who was a domestic contact with someone confirmed to be infected by the variant. Two people were admitted to hospital with the variant.
The average age of those who are ill with B.1.1.7 is 30, but the age group of those who are infected is between newborns and 77 years old, said dr. Wilma Wooten, the health officer in San Diego County, said.
The growth of the B.1.1.7 variant “requires that we remain vigilant, that we are not complacent, that we still take the necessary precautions to slow down the spread,” said Nathan Fletcher, president of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors, warned.
The B.1.1.7 variant of the coronavirus led to a rapid spread of the disease in Britain, Portugal and Ireland, and quickly became the dominant strain in those countries, Natasha Martin, associate professor in the UC San Diego Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Health, the Board of Supervisors said last week.
“This particular variant is estimated to be 50% to 70% more transmissible than previous variants, which in cases can lead to thrusts,” Martin said. “There is recent evidence that this could also lead to higher deaths.”
California’s first detection of the B.1.1.7 variant took place on Dec. 30 in San Diego County. It is now estimated that it makes up 5% of the circulating tribes, Martin said.
“The question is not whether this strain will become dominant, but how long it will take and what effect it will have on our epidemic trajectory, given its increased transmissibility,” Martin said.
A major problem is that the growing dominance of B.1.1.7 could dramatically exacerbate the California pandemic. Martin currently says in California that the effective reproduction number – the average number of people to whom an infectious person transmits the coronavirus – is about 0.9, meaning that every infected person in California now transmits the virus to less than one person, which explain why the pandemic is improving now.
But should B.1.1.7 become the dominant strain, with a 50% to 70% increase in transmissibility, the reproduction number could be greater than 1 and the cases could increase dramatically, Martin warned.
According to scientific simulations, officials and the public must act with extraordinary caution to reopen the economy, Martin said.
Even a decent vaccination plan does not match the British variant if people abandon the masked wear and physical distance in the same way as in the run-up to Thanksgiving, according to a simulation presented by Martin.
If people reject the masked wear and physical distance as in the fall, San Diego County is likely to see the current new coronavirus case – now about 1,500 new cases a day for a week – the lowest in about two months. to as many as 7,000 new cases a day, beyond a level “that would overwhelm our health systems,” Martin said.
It would be much worse than San Diego County has experienced so far in the pandemic. San Diego County has completed approximately 3,600 new cases of coronavirus per day for the seven-day period ending Jan. 12.
“This scenario … will overwhelm our health systems,” Martin said. ‘There are some emerging data that the B.1.1.7 [strain] is more deadly. So in any case, we can expect even more deaths than we see now. ”
If the amount of circulating virus is reduced, the expansion of the B.1.1.7 variant will be delayed, Martin said.
“I can not stress this enough – with the rise of B.1.1.7 and other strains that may be more transmissible and possibly more deadly – now is the time to reduce transmission and extend vaccination,” Martin said. said. “In the coming weeks, we urgently need to focus all efforts on reducing transmission, to ensure a robust vaccination response and to approach with caution.”
The concern about the tension, as well as the continuing large number of daily cases, led to Wooten of San Diego County holding a local order last week banning restaurants from allowing outdoor dining between 10pm and 5am . place an order requiring dinner customers to leave outside dining areas at 10pm
This is a different position than LA County, which allowed eating outside on Friday, but also during the late night.
According to San Diego County data, which is about 20% of the outbreaks identified, the restaurants and other eateries have been the second most confirmed number of community outbreaks in the last ten months.
Wooten told supervisors she was uncomfortable reopening restaurants for outdoor service late at night because restaurants that so often switched to parties – a situation where people are more likely to mix with people from other households and their breathing particles to exhale. in others’ faces while talking, dramatically increasing the risk of a super-distributor incident because people who drink do not wear masks.
“I feel uncomfortable with the number of issues we still have to change at this stage,” Wooten said.
Restaurants were the source of the second highest number of coronavirus outbreaks in San Diego County.
(San Diego County)
It is believed that the available vaccines are effective against the B.1.1.7 variant.
Officials also expressed concern about the variant identified from South Africa, known as B.1.351, and the closely related variant from Brazil, known as P.1. The South African variant has been detected in two cases in South Carolina – in different parts of the state and not believed to be epidemiologically linked – and one in Maryland. The Brazilian variant has been identified in a single case in Minnesota.
The South African variant has also raised concerns because vaccines are less effective against the virus, although “it has not yet been below the cut-off point where you would expect some efficacy,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s leading expert on infectious diseases, said.
Nevertheless, scientists and government officials are now working on an additional stimulus shot in case officials feel it is necessary to protect against new strains.
“This is a wake-up call for all of us,” Fauci told reporters during a briefing Friday. “We will continue to see the evolution of mutants. This means that we must … be nimble to adapt easily to make versions of the vaccine that are specifically targeted to any mutation that is common at any given time. ‘
This is all the more reason to try to get vaccinated as soon as possible. “Viruses cannot mutate if they do not recur,” Fauci said.
It is no coincidence that the emergence of problematic mutations occurs in countries where the coronavirus has flourished. ‘To run viruses, such as [the U.S. and] “Brazil did that, put everyone in danger,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, tweeted.
The rise of the British strain could mean that the summer – instead of a quiet period for the coronavirus – could actually cause a higher incidence of the coronavirus than scientists would otherwise expect, dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, told the CBS News program “Face the Nation” on Sunday.
‘What is likely to happen is that the incidence will be high at certain local hotspots. As a result of B.1.1.7, we will have hotspots and sometimes epidemics in parts of Florida, parts of Southern California. “They will never really get out of it, but the rest of the country will see the decline,” Gottlieb said.
However, one silver lining for the South African and Brazilian variants is that – unlike the British variant – it is no more transmissible than the general range of the virus, Gottlieb said. That means ‘we have time to take control of the variant and develop new boosters that can protect against it, vaccine boosters’, Gottlieb said.
Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, made a much harsher prediction than Gottlieb did in an interview with the NBC news program “Meet the Press” on Sunday. Osterholm suspected that the appearance of the British variant was similar to looking at a hurricane form, and predicted a new upswing in the next six to 14 weeks.
“And if we see that happen – which my 45 years in the trenches tells me we will do – we are going to see something like we have not seen before in this country,” Osterholm said. “The hurricane is coming.”
Paul Sisson of the San Diego Union-Tribune contributed to this report.