There is evidence that a new coronavirus variant first identified in south-east England carries a higher risk of death than the original strain, the British chief scientific adviser said on Friday – although he stressed that the data were uncertain.
Patrick Vallance told a news conference that “there is evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new variant.”
He said that for a man in his 60s with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that about 1,000 people who become infected will unfortunately die.”
“With the new variant, about 13 or 14 people out of 1000 people who are infected can die,” he said.
But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not yet strong” and that more research is needed.
Contrary to the uncertainty, he said, confidence is growing that the variant is more easily transmitted than the original coronavirus strain. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more transferable.
Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical lead on COVID-19, said studies were underway to investigate the transmission and severity of new virus variants.
She has so far said “they have not yet seen an increase in severity”, but that more transmission could lead to an overloaded healthcare system ‘and thus more deaths.
The evidence that the new variant is more lethal is a paper compiled by a group of scientists advising the government on new respiratory viruses, based on several studies.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “the conclusion about this likely increased mortality comes from analyzes done by different groups, although in reality the same data is being worked on.”
British officials say they are confident that the vaccines granted to use COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said scientists are concerned that variants identified in Brazil and South Africa may be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needs to be done.
Concerns about newly identified variants have caused a spate of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries closed their borders to travelers from Britain, and the United Kingdom stopped flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there could be further restrictions.
“We may have to go further to protect our borders,” he said.
Britain recorded 95,981 deaths among people who tested positive for the coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
Follow The Gleaner on Twitter and Instagram @JamaicaGleaner and on Facebook @GleanerJamaica. Send us a message on WhatsApp at 1-876-499-0169 or send an email to [email protected] or [email protected].