Brazilian COVID-19 variant is much more transmissible than other strains

An international team of researchers has found evidence to suggest that the P.1 coronavirus variant first seen in parts of Brazil may be up to twice as transmissible as previous strains. Published in their paper in the journal Science, the group describes their work with the study of the variant and what they found.

The P.1 SARS-CoV-2 variant was first seen in Manaus, the capital of the state of Amazonas in Brazil. Initial research suggested that the virus originated late last year and began spreading in November. It quickly became the dominant tribe, leading many people in the country to believe that it could infect people who were infected with the initial tribe earlier this year. During the initial infestation period, it was believed that about 70% of the people in the city were infected. After varietal infections increased in Manaus, the P.1 variant soon spread to Brazil and then to other countries – to date it has been found in 37 countries.

Through molecular clock analysis, the researchers determined that the virus has 17 identifiable mutations and that three ear protein mutations – N501Y, E484K and K417T – are of particular concern because it appears possible that the virus binds more strongly to human cells, and in some cases . , to help with the escape of antibodies. They also found evidence that the variant may evade an immune response to previous virus strains.

Other work was to simulate the virus to determine how its capabilities have changed since it mutated. The simulations showed that the variant is 1.7 to 2.4 times more transmissible than the previous strains of the virus. The researchers could not determine if the increase was due to the virus lasting longer in the body, or due to an increase in viral load. They also could not determine whether the new variant makes people sicker and whether it is more deadly. They estimate that those infected in Manaus are 1.2 to 1.9 times more likely to die from a P.1 infection than earlier strains, but it was not clear if this was due to changes in the virus or the health system in the city is overloaded by more demand than the city can handle.

The researchers conclude that more work is needed to determine whether the P.1 strain is really capable of infecting people infected with previous strains, or those who have been vaccinated.

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