British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Friday suggested that the coronavirus variant discovered in the UK could be more deadly than other versions of the virus, although public health officials stressed that there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding this conclusion.
“In addition to faster distribution,” Johnson told a news conference, “it also appears that there is evidence that the new variant, first identified in London, may be associated with a higher mortality rate.”
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The variant was first identified last September and is linked to the increase in infections observed in the UK late last year. It is generally accepted that the variant is more contagious, although scientists have previously said it does not look more harmful.
Johnson’s announcement was based on a report by the country’s new and emerging respiratory virus advisory group, or NERVTAG. The data are preliminary and found that among a subgroup of patients there appears to be an increase in mortality in those infected by the British variant, B.1.1.7, compared to other variants.
“If you took a man in his 60s, the average risk is that there will be a thousand people who become infected, about a thousand people will die from the virus,” Dr Patrick Vallance, the UK’s top scientific adviser, said during the news conference. “With the new variant, about 13 or 14 people can expect to die for a thousand people who are infected.”
But Vallance advised caution. “I want to emphasize that there is a lot of uncertainty around these numbers, and that we need more work to deal with them precisely.”
Others agreed that more research was needed.
“There is evidence from some, but not all, data sources, suggesting that the concern variant first detected in the UK may lead to a higher risk of death than the non-variable,” said Drs. . Susan Hopkins, the director of strategic response at Public Health England, said in a statement. “Evidence for this variant is still emerging and more work is underway to fully understand how it behaves.”
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement that the agency had released colleagues in the UK but had not yet seen the data and had not had the opportunity to speak to colleagues in the UK. “
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Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Georgetown University Center for Global Health Science and Security in Washington, DC, said the data from the UK was not ‘particularly convincing’ and did not take into account a number of unrelated reasons for a higher mortality rate, quality of care included.
Dr. Charles Chiu, a professor of laboratory medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, said he would be reluctant to draw any conclusions from the information regarding the virulence of the variant without much more data, because there is so much potential confusion. is. factors that may explain these observations. ‘
“I have not seen any evidence that the new B.1.1.7 variant in the UK or any SARS-CoV-2 variant is more lethal,” Chiu said, referring to the virus that causes Covid-19.
The new NERVTAG report is ‘hard to fire’, said Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor of medical microbiology and infectious diseases at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg. But he also stressed that the findings need to be confirmed with laboratory research.
Yet the possibility is worrying. And for those at high risk for complications from Covid-19, the prospect of a more deadly variant is worrying.
“An increased mortality rate is certainly possible with a virus that has increased its game,” Ian Jones, a professor of virology at the University of Reading, said in a statement. “But grim as it sounds, whether the death rate is 1 percent or 1.3 percent, does not really change the fact that for a minority of people it is a very dangerous virus that can best be avoided.”
The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention recently suggested that the British variant could be the dominant strain in the US by March. Since there is already evidence that the variant makes the virus more transmissible, mitigation efforts, such as face masks, physical distance and regular hand washing, are more important than ever before.
Vallance also noted that the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine appears to be effective against the British variant.
Just two days ago, “Pfizer-BioNTech did studies that showed that the variant virus was very well neutralized by the blood taken from people who were vaccinated,” Vallance said.
“There is therefore increasing confidence, coupled with what I think is a very important clinical observation, that individuals who have previously been infected and generated antibodies appear to be equally protected against the new virus and the old variant.”
This means that it is essential to get people vaccinated quickly.
“I do not know if there are more alarm bells that could ring to say that we need to invent the rollout of vaccines and get the vaccines in the arms of people, not just in the US or Canada, but around the world,” said Kindrachuk. .
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