- Scotland is on the verge of independence from the United Kingdom after Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon promised to continue a referendum on leaving the Union.
- The promise comes amid polls showing majority support among Scots for leaving the UK.
- Johnson has so far refused to give legal consent for another referendum, but Scotland can proceed with a vote regardless.
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Scotland is on the road to independence from the United Kingdom. This is the inevitable conclusion that can be drawn from the latest opinion polls which show an increase in support for Scottish nationalism.
The polls, which now show a continuing lead for independence, follow a grim year for the UK in which it suffered one of the highest coronavirus deaths and the worst recessions in any country in the world.
It also coincided with Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, against which a clear majority of Scots voted against it.
The combination of Brexit outrage, distrust of Boris Johnson (who has a long record of offending the Scots) and the British government’s shambolic handling of the coronavirus pandemic have all conspired to create the perfect environment for the independence movement .
As the Scottish fisherman has reported serious problems as a result of Brexit and wider trade with the EU under severe tension due to new restrictions created by Brexit, the fate of the Union has never looked so poor.
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is Scottish himself, warned on Monday that the situation could push the UK to become a ‘failed state’ due to growing dissatisfaction with the Westminster government in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
On Sunday, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon took advantage of growing public discontent among Scots by publishing an 11-point plan for independence.
Importantly, Sturgeon has promised to proceed with a referendum on the coronavirus pandemic, regardless of whether Johnson gives permission.
whatscotlandthinks.org
Johnson has so far refused to consider such a vote, instead pointing to the decisive victory for the union in the last independence referendum in 2014.
In the intervening years, however, Brexit and the election of Johnson, who is very unpopular in Scotland, greatly boosted the prospects for independence.
And with the forthcoming Scottish Parliamentary election likely to deliver Sturgeon by an absolute majority on a pro-independence ticket, it will become increasingly difficult for Johnson to resist another vote.
Sturgeon accused Johnson on Sunday of being ‘afraid of democracy’.
In a language that apparently used Johnson’s own campaign messages against him in the Brexit campaign, Sturgeon told the BBC that the prime minister “fears the verdict and the will of the Scottish people.”
She promised to proceed with a ‘legal referendum’ once the pandemic was over, and said the Scottish Government would fight any attempt to stop them in court.
Such a legal battle is likely to be won by Johnson, as the powers to convene a referendum are legally reserved by the British government.
However, any attempt to defy “the will of the people” by Johnson will only serve to put a fire under the campaign for independence and make Johnson’s resistance to another referendum even more difficult to maintain in the long run.
And even if Johnson’s legal battle were successful, Sturgeon could continue with a Catalan – style referendum she was likely to win, which would still make Johnson’s position untenable.
Acceptance of this reality seems to be creeping into Downing Street with journalist James Forsyth, the husband of Johnson’s press secretary and a close insider of Johnson’s government, and wrote last week that Johnson would probably only be able to slow down rather than completely prevent another referendum.
“There is a growing realization that Johnson can not just say no,” Forsyth wrote in the Times.
Instead, Forsyth writes that Downing Street bans the idea of resisting an immediate referendum, while promising a reform of relations between England and Scotland.
Such promises will be known to all who have followed the recent British political history.
In 2013, David Cameron, the former prime minister, tried to suppress the desire for Brexit within his own party by promising to reform EU-UK relations before holding a referendum.
At the time, Cameron believed that his reforms would put an end to the desire for EU independence, and help him gain a majority because he lived in Europe.
The reality was quite the opposite. Cameron’s reforms were dismissed as meaningless by both pro- and anti-EU campaigners, and the anti-EU movement was constantly pulling Britain out of Europe.
Johnson is likely to be very similar to his own efforts to prevent Scottish independence.
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