As the saying goes, boring is better. Many fantasy baseball players are looking for the next best thing. This is mainly due to the fear of missing a breakthrough or new exciting young player. Of course, it is extremely valuable to find the jars, but it is also very difficult to find them. What most people do not realize is that taking on those ‘old’ boring players can be just as valuable. With a long record and proper numbers, these throwers can give you stable turns and relationships with a predictable floor.
Although his ADP seems appropriate this year (for the first time ever), I can not say the words ‘boring’ without mentioning the fantastic Kyle Hendricks. To me, Hendricks is like water. Many people prefer things with taste, but water is essential for your body, which makes it extremely underrated (terrible analogy).
Hendricks usually drops the draft speech due to a lack of strikeouts. His average career percentage is only 20.8%, which definitely detracts from its value. Perhaps the fantasy baseball world overestimated its lack of strikeouts. The reason for this is that the excellent relationships he delivers year in and year out, as well as the high floor. Throughout his career, Hendricks has average a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 whip. His two highest ERAs for a season are 3.95 (2015) and 3.46 (2019).
Hendricks can achieve so much success by painting the corners, creating deception and having extraordinary tunnel abilities. Its sinker, conversion, four-seam and curveball are used more than 15% of the time. By 2020, all four of these sites will have a positive pVAL as well as an ISO below .200. He is the king of boredom, and the king of boredom can be far more valuable than the young and exciting.
Mike Minor rode on a pitch mix change in 2019 by going heavy with four sides / conversion. It worked clearly (3.59 ERA) and made so much sense since its change has always had so much movement. He actually rode the same pitch mix in 2020, except that he produced completely different results with a 5.56 ERA.
Clearly, the reason for his return was the fastball with four seams. In terms of speed, it dropped two miles per hour from 92.5 to 90.6. If you now look at its figures from 2020 compared to 2019, it is basically identical. What did affect it was the change. You are now taking a speed difference from a solid eight MPH to just six MPH. This led to a higher wRC +, ISO, wOBA and HR / GB% compared to its change.
Mike Minor’s fast ball has averaged 92 MPH over the past four seasons. It makes me believe that the shortened season has ruined his typical startup routine and that he could never let it go. That speed should come back and with it the fantastic four-seam / shift combination. Not only that, but the Royals are going to need turns from him. He is a veteran who should keep no restrictions, and he bagged 200 innings in 2019.
Is Dallas Keuchel an under-two ERA pitcher? No. But he has only had an ERA above four once in the past seven seasons. Keuchel is almost a Hendricks lite. With a career average of 3.59 ERA, 3.77 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, how could one not see Keuchel as a solid anchor for their rotation?
The result percentage of only 16.3% is certainly not flashy, but the repertoire leaves a high floor. He mixes it well against right-handed victims (RHH) and left-handed victims (LHH). Against RHH he likes to make his change, a pitch at which RHHs only had a .186 wOBAcon. Against LHH he likes to throw his slider which causes a 17.2 SwStr%. Against both he throws his cutter and sinker, a pitch against which virtually no hit can make quality contact.
Generally, he uses his sinker and cutter to reach the zone at will. Although both have a high contact percentage, the sinker has a ball speed of 62.4 and the cutter has an overall 0.051 ISO at. The conversion and sliding bar he likes to throw more out of the zone and try to induce whales.
No matter which way you turn, he is the best there is to make poor contact. In 2020, it had a .028 HR / 9, 52.8 GB% and 4.0 Bar%. Keuchel is very good at what he does and there is no reason to think that it will not continue. He is very valuable as a pitcher on the high floor and as a player to grab if your rotation seems a bit risky.