Big snowstorm affecting 100 million people in Midwest and Northeast

What seems to be the most influential snowstorm of the winter so far has been set to dump snow from the Middle East to the Northeast, affecting more than 100 million people. Some cities can be buried in up to 18 inches of snow early next week.

Cities from Chicago to Cleveland to Washington, DC and New York are watching and waiting to see what the storm will move east this Sunday through Tuesday. This is the same storm system as soaked parts of California with an incredible 15 centimeters of rain and more than 100 centimeters of snow over the past week.

At present, the storm is located across the southwest and is moving eastward. At the same time, fierce cold has engulfed the Great Lakes and Northeast, where winds in parts of New England are up to 20 degrees below zero.

This cold air brings with it both the promise of a big snowstorm and the complication of perhaps too much cold. This is because this cold air is associated with an atmospheric block. The strength of this block will determine whether Washington DC is buried in heavy snow and whether the bullies end up near New York City and southern England.

In other words, will this block suppress the storm trail south or cause the storm northward thumbs up? At this point, it’s too early to know. So far this winter, snowfall in Washington, DC, has barely existed, by only a third of an inch.

To block or not to block, that is the question. Or really … how much will this block prevent the storm from moving northeast? The key area is the confluence over the Northeast. Euro has it strong. Other models are less daring with the confluence. Is the truth somewhere in between? pic.twitter.com/ZdKkgehiQf

– Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) 29 January 2021

What we do know is that heavy snow will fall across the Midwest and Ohio Valley from Chicago to Cleveland and surrounding areas on Saturday night and Sunday. In total, the heaviest snow should fall 6-12 inches Sunday night, perhaps Chicago, Indianapolis and Columbus.

On Sunday, the storm will move to the East Coast and spread snow in parts of Virginia and southern Pennsylvania. In an effort to overcome the cold air block, the storm will transfer its energy to a developing coastal storm off the North Carolina coast. The snow can sometimes be heavy in places like Washington, DC

Now comes the tricky part. Does the storm slide eastward toward the ocean, keeping cold air in the Washington area and the heavy snow between DC and Atlantic City? Or does the storm move northeast and bury New York, Providence and maybe Boston more than one foot of snow?

It’s too early to be sure. But it looks like the blocking scenario will make it a protracted event, and some cities will see 36 hours of snow Sunday through Tuesday. Anyone stuck under the heavy tire is likely to pick up 12-18 inches, with insulated spots close to 20 inches.

If the snow reaches New York City, it will likely start early Monday morning and then reach Providence Monday afternoon. The storm must leave Tuesday night.

Below is a comparison of two models showing two different potential outcomes. The first one is the American GFS model from Friday morning with a heavy snowfall from Washington, DC to New York. Rght below is the European run on Thursday night, which shows that the heavier snow is sliding south of New York City and cutting off east of New England.

The details will become clearer once a city is within 48 hours of the storm’s arrival. So keep an eye out …