Elected President Joe Biden hopes to revive the nuclear deal in Iran after he takes office, but the task is only becoming more daunting.
Send the news: Iran announced today that it will begin enriching uranium to 20% – within striking distance of weapons grade levels – at its underground Fordow plant.
- Hours later, Tehran announced that it had seized a tanker in South Korea with the flag in the Strait of Hormuz, allegedly due to pollution. This is another reminder of the world of Iran’s ability to disrupt an important shipping corridor.
- Meanwhile, the US and its regional partners fear possible Iranian retaliation one year after the US attack that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, as well as the recent assassination of Iranian chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
The big picture
According to Biden, the nuclear acceleration of Iran and the provocative regional tensions are consequences of President Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ approach after his withdrawal from the 2015 agreement. Biden is prepared to lift the nuclear sanctions and bring the US back into the agreement – if Iran complies with it again.
- Incoming national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that Biden, after returning to the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), would follow the follow-up negotiations to curb Iran’s regional behavior.
- Sullivan said Iran’s ballistic missile program “should be on the table” during the negotiations.
It looks like the framework is in place, as President Hassan Rouhani says Iran is also prepared to comply if the US lifts its sanctions. But today’s enrichment announcement underscores how thorny the process will be.
- If Iran enriches significant amounts of uranium to 20%, its core period will become ‘very, very small’, says Ernest Moniz, who played a key role in the 2015 deal as Barack Obama’s energy secretary. “The most important question is how much they earn.”
Game status
The move to 20% enrichment is part of a law passed on Rouhani’s objections, which also calls for the UN’s nuclear inspections to be suspended if sanctions against Iran’s oil and banking sector are not lifted by February.
- It would be a “game changer” if any of the steps Iran has taken so far, Moniz says, because “then it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that we know they are not participating in a weapons program.”
Iran also demanded compensation for damages due to U.S. sanctions, although Rouhani has shown some flexibility at that point.
- More challenging may be Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s insistence that Iran be unwilling to negotiate on issues outside its nuclear program – at least not before the US has lifted sanctions.
What’s next: In June, there are also presidential elections in Iran, with the expectation that a tough government will replace Rouhani’s.
- Returning to the deal after being burned by Trump is an extremely controversial proposal.
- “These are probably the kind of things an outgoing government can do more easily, as the JCPOA is not the most popular point in some political circles in Iran,” said Rob Malley, a former Middle East adviser to Obama and now president of the International Crisis. Group. The direction of travel will ultimately be determined by Iran’s supreme leader, Malley adds.
Where things stand: If Biden wants a deal with Rouhani, he only has five months to get it.
The opposition
Biden will face fierce opposition to a speedy return to the agreement between Israel and the Gulf states, as well as Republicans and some Democrats in Congress.
What they say: Opponents argue that Biden has been given a strong hand by Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign and he should play it carefully.
‘This is really an economic war that the US is taking action against Iran, “said Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to the US (2014–2019) and a permanent representative to the UN Security Council (2009–2014).” It is true that it gives the US leverage. “
- There have already been some public comments from Israeli and Gulf officials discouraging Biden from returning to the 2015 agreement and only dan an attempt to negotiate an agreement that addresses legal issues.
- Sullivan’s argument is that the US will be better positioned to negotiate on these issues once Iran’s nuclear program is “back in a box”.
One of the most controversial points will probably be sequence.
- Iran says it will return to compliance once the US has lifted sanctions, while Biden says it will lift the sanctions once Iran complies.
- This will require Iran to take a number of technical steps, including sending enriched uranium out of the country, likely to Russia.
- The process could be completed within about four months, Moniz says – probably faster than Iran ‘going all out’, but slower in a phase in which Iranian steps are accompanied by US sanctions easing.
The other side: The Trump administration has sought to block Biden’s path back to the JCPOA, in part by imposing sanctions on Iran for non-nuclear issues.
- Biden can lift the sanctions without congressional approval – and the Iranians can demand that he do so – but Iranian falcons hope the issue will become another domestic political minefield.
What to look for
Iran’s recent nuclear acceleration, and the threat of expelling inspectors is likely to be Biden’s biggest concern in the short term – and these actions are clearly intended to force him to move quickly.
Yes, but: “Some steps Iran could take could backfire,” Malley added. “I think there comes a point where more pressure can mean that the Biden government will also change course.”
Flash back: The European signatories to the JCPOA – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – worked desperately for the two years after Trump’s withdrawal to preserve the agreement until the next US election.
- The candidate who made the recovery of the Iran deal a top priority is now two weeks away from the Oval Office.
- But even he admits that the way forward is uncertain. Tony Blinken, Biden’s choice as foreign minister, said the US would work with Europe on Iran – regardless of whether Iran eventually agreed to comply.
European leaders and diplomats will try to facilitate dialogue between the US and Iran, Araud says. But he recalled years of fruitless European efforts to negotiate with Iran before the Obama administration tackled the issue.
The conclusion: “We knew from the beginning that the real problem was between the United States and Iran,” he says, “and this is even more the case now.”