U.S. President Joe Biden wants to end the war in Yemen, but the conflict is unlikely to be called back any time soon, according to Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president of research at the Hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“In fact, if anything, I think it’s likely to exacerbate the conflict,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.
Biden announced last month that the US would withdraw its support for the offensive against the Houthi forces in Yemen.
Previous administrations under Donald Trump and Barack Obama have supported the Saudi-led alliance in its intervention in the Yemeni civil war.
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when Houthi rebels took control of the capital Sanaa from the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
A year later, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Sunni Arab states in support of the Yemeni government to overthrow the Houthis, a militia backed by the Shiite majority Iran.
We are simply going to hope that a militia supported by Iran will come to the table and act reasonably. Unfortunately, I think this is wishful thinking.
Jonathan Schanzer
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
According to the United Nations, the war has already caused some 233,000 deaths – more than 100,000 deaths due to indirect causes such as lack of food, health services and infrastructure.
Schanzer said Biden’s move would not help end the war in Yemen because the US does not have concessions to offer to the Houthis, who now have less incentive than before to compromise.
“What the Biden government has done is that it has taken the military option for the United States off the table, even by way of proxy by the Saudis,” he said.
Diplomacy is the only option
The US also designated the Houthi as a foreign terrorist organization and removed them from the specially designated global terrorist list.
“What’s left now is diplomacy,” Schanzer said.
“The reality we are facing now is that we have taken all our other leverage off the table, and we are simply going to hope that a militia supported by Iran will come to the table and act fairly,” he said. he said. . “Unfortunately, I think it’s wishful thinking.”
He noted that the Houthis had intensified the strikes, although the US envoy to Yemen, Timothy Lenderking, had begged them to negotiate.
Smoke is blowing above the residential area following airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition targeted by Houthi military positions on March 7, 2021 in Sana’a, Yemen.
Mohammed Hamoud | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Schanzer said the continued military operations in Saudi Arabia could be ‘one of the few leverage’s the US could use in talks with the Houthis.
Yet he acknowledged that there was an aversion to being involved in the conflict. “It seems … that Biden’s government has tied itself up a bit,” he said.
It is unlikely that there will be any progress for the time being to end the Yemeni war, he pointed out the aggression of the Houthi’s.
“With the swarm of drones and the ballistic missile attacks and other acts of violence they have carried out in the Saudi state, it is very, very difficult to imagine the Saudis wanting to retaliate for their retaliation,” he said.
– Amanda Macias from CNBC contributed to this report.