Professional bettor Mark DeRosa was on a plane back from Atlantic City to last year’s Super Bowl, when he got a clear picture of what would turn out to be one of the biggest scores of his career.
DeRosa believed Tom Brady was going to leave New England in the off-season and that Tampa Bay is one of the most likely landing sites. Sportsbooks, however, disagreed, citing the Buccaneers at about 50-1 in their chances of where Brady would play in the 2020 season. Professional bookmakers have made Brady’s return to New England a huge favorite.
‘The books praised it as if there was a 75% chance he would return [to New England]”DeRosa said.” I thought the chance was 75% that he would not return, so the market was really far. “
While in Atlantic City for the Super Bowl, DeRosa played two $ 500 bets with DraftKings on Brady playing with the Buccaneers, at 50-1 and 40-1. When he decides on the plane back to Florida, he wants to climb more on Tampa Bay to win the NFC and Super Bowl next season. He will have to convince his old college friend and betting buddy Zack White that the Bucs are a good bet.
Tampa Bay has just completed a 7-9 campaign in which quarterback Jameis Winston throws 30 interceptions. It was the Buccaneers’ third consecutive losing season, and they were once again considered long-lasting, with Super Bowl chances in the 65-1 series.
“He had to talk me over it quite a bit,” recalls White, a respected Las Vegas bettor. “His reasoning added that Brady would go there.”
White asked DeRosa what he thinks the chances are that Brady will land in Tampa Bay, “because if he does not, then this bet is pretty awful.”
DeRosa said he has a feeling, a well-reasoned one, based on several signs indicating that Brady is leaving New England. DeRosa recalled a 2018 ESPN story that highlighted a rift between Brady, Patriots coach Bill Belichick and owner Robert Kraft. In August 2019, DeRosa read that Brady offered his mansion in Massachusetts for sale, and he thinks it makes sense for the six-time Super Bowl champion full-back to have his contract expired for the first time in his career.
DeRosa believes that Tampa Bay – due to the displeasure of coach Bruce Arians with the turnover-sensitive Winston, a team full of playmakers, hot weather and a lack of tax revenue from the state – was just one handful of passes for Brady.
‘The worst case scenario is that you have [Tampa Bay] 30-1 to win the NFC and 60-1 for the Super Bowl, and that’s just the market price, “DeRosa argued with White last week. If that happens, they’ll be like 5-1 and 10-1, and I really think that’s going to happen. I do not think he is coming back. I think he’s going somewhere else. ‘
White was convinced and went to work in Las Vegas and put a few thousand dollars on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl 65-1 and 60-1. Meanwhile, in Florida, DeRosa watched the odds on sports books in New Jersey and saw the Borgata open the Bucs 35-1 to win the NFC. Derosa immediately booked a flight back to Atlantic City and placed a $ 8,000 bet on Tampa Bay to win the conference 35-1.
When DeRosa and White finished, they invested about $ 20,000 in the Bucs, at 65-1 to win the Super Bowl and 35-1 to win the NFC. They each took smaller positions in a few teams, DeRosa on the Los Angeles Chargers and White on the Saints, but their biggest investment was on the Bucs.
On March 20, Brady signed a two-year deal with the Buccaneers, whose Super Bowl chances improved dramatically with sports books. When the season started, Tampa Bay was about 10-1 to win the Super Bowl and 5-1 to win the NFC, just as DeRosa expected.
In the middle of the season, things did not look good for the Bucs. They lost three of four in November, including a 38-3 result against the Saints, to fall to 7-5.
“There was a little frustration,” White says with a laugh about Tampa Bay’s midseason swoon, ‘but it’s the NFL, man, you’m not counting anyone out until the end.
“There was always so much value locked up in those big money tickets,” White added. “You could have locked up a lot of profit before the season even started with the numbers we had.”
They each risked a bit of their risk by taking the Washington Football Team +9.5 in the playoffs of the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay won by eight. However, they mostly stuck around and planned to do the same for the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog for the Kansas City Chiefs.
“I’m not very hedging,” DeRosa said.
Both in their late thirties, DeRosa and White attended the Appalachian State together and have been betting professionally for more than a decade. They have already made a six-figure win over the Bucs and are in the position for the biggest score of their careers in any sport if Tampa Bay wins the Super Bowl.
“We had about $ 11,000 to win $ 400,000 at the NFC Championship,” DeRosa said. ‘And then we still have about $ 8,000 or $ 9,000 to win the Super Bowl 60-1.
“So, go Bucs.”