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Illinois and Iowa meet for a crucial Big Ten semifinal that could decide who becomes No. 1 in the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa used a strong performance in the second half to beat Wisconsin for the third time this season. The Hawkeyes are warming up at the right time, winning eight of their last nine games on Saturday. They lost to Illinois, 80-75, in the singles game against the regular season, and the Hawks will take revenge this time.
Illinois crossed past Rutgers in the quarterfinals and is currently the hottest team in the country. The Illini have won 12 of their last 13 games, including victories on the road over Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin to end the season. Illinois is currently expected to become a one-time contender in the NCAA Tournament, but a bad loss to Iowa could potentially drop Brad Underwood’s group to a two-stroke list.
Toe Iowa Hif the ball
It’s no surprise that the Hawkeyes’ attack revolves around the best big man in university basketball, Luka Garza. The senior averaged 23.8 points per game and dropped 24 points on 10-of-15 shooting Friday night against Wisconsin.
However, it is a challenge to act against the biggest man in the Big Ten in 7-foot and 285-pound Kofi Cockburn.
The Falcons can beat teams from all over the field, as they lead the Big Ten in efficiency, with an average of 1.15 points per possession. They can bombard 3s with the best of these, averaging more than 40% during conference play. Iowa also dominated opponents under low, which according to Hoop-Math made 62.3% of its shots on the edge.
It shot the ball pretty well against Illinois in January, with 43% from the field and 10-of-25 from outside the arc. The biggest difference in that game was that Iowa could not get to the free throw, and only shot six free throws for the entire game.
Illinois was, according to KenPom, one of the best teams that were defensive in college basketball. It defends the paint at an elite level, allowing only 45.1% from the 2-point range.
So, if the Hawks are going to win this game, they have to do it from the 2-point distance and the free-throw line.
When Illinois has the ball
Illinois has been at full strength over its last two games, averaging more than 1.15 points per game in those games. It definitely helps if you have two of the best players in the country in Ayo Dosunmu and Cockburn, who work together for 38.2 points per game.
Like Iowa, Illinois can also destroy its opponents from across the court. The Illini boasts the number 1 offense within the arc, averaging more than 54% and 67.3% on shot attempts at the edge, according to Hoop-Math.
Illinois also shoots a dazzling 38% from the three-point series, which falls into the top-25 in college basketball. It set Iowa on fire from deep in their January meeting and shot 43% from deep, so Iowa is likely to have problems at the defensive end of the floor again.
The Hawkeyes have really improved defensively during the second half of the season, as they have only been able to score more than 70 points twice in their last nine games.
The way to beat Iowa’s defense is really from behind the arc, which Illinois is well equipped to do.
Betting analysis and selection
Although Illinois has looked fantastic over the past month, I think the Hawkeyes will take revenge for the loss in Champaign. Iowa has improved significantly since these two teams met and should have been able to keep Illinois’ offense under control.
I only projected Illinois as a -1.76 favorite, so I think there is some value for the Hawkeyes at +4.
Choose: Iowa +4 (up to +3).