The semi-finals of the Australian Open begin on Wednesday night, with the title of the match between 10th seed Serena Williams of the United States and third seed Naomi Osaka of Japan. It will be their first Grand Slam event since the 2018 United States Open final, a victory in Osaka in which Williams received three penalties from the referee’s chairman.
The winner will get the winner of the other semi-final: between no. 25 Karolina Muchova of the Czech Republic and no. 22 Jennifer Brady of the United States.
Here’s what to look for in a game that starts at 22:00 Eastern in the Rod Laver Arena.
Can Williams close?
Williams, 39, began her career as one of the biggest shutters at the end of the Grand Slam event. In her first 28 trips to a Grand Slam semifinal, she won the title 21 times. But after her shocking loss to Roberta Vinci in the 2015 U.S. Open semifinals, Williams struggled to score slam victories, winning the title only twice in 11 trips to a semifinal.
Since winning the Australian Open in 2017, Williams has stuck to 23 Grand Slam titles, one of the highest plateaus in sporting history. Although she already holds the career record for Grand Slam titles in the Open era, which began in 1968, Williams has long had her eye on Margaret Court’s record of 24 major titles.
Osaka, 23, who grew up idolizing Williams, was flawless in concluding Grand Slam victories early in her career. Osaka have made three previous Grand Slam quarterfinals; each time she won the tournament. By reaching the semifinals this week, Osaka improved its record in the last three rounds of Grand Slam events to 10-0.
Osaka enters the semifinals against Williams, which she beat in two of three events, after winning 19 consecutive games, the longest series in her career. Her last loss occurred more than a year ago in a Fed Cup match last February.
Williams becomes defensive.
All three of the previous Osaka games against Williams took place after Williams returned from maternity leave in 2018. Osaka has never seen Williams move as well as this week.
Williams joked after second-round pick Simona Halep after her victory in the quarter-finals that she was motivated to get in shape by the shaped cat suit she knew she would have to wear on the track in Melbourne. Her improved conditioning is reflected in her foot speed, which enables her to play breathtaking defense and extend rallies in ways she has not been able to try over the past year.
Osaka, which Williams can match by force, will not be able to rely on a lead in foot speed as in their previous meetings.
Osaka and Williams moved past the 2018 U.S. Open final.
The 2018 U.S. Open final plunged into chaos as Williams incurred increasing penalties from referee chairman Carlos Ramos for repeated violations of the code, which swept the crowd at Arthur Ashe Stadium in anger. Osaka was in tears after the game, and some criticized Williams for ruining her moment.
But despite the opportunities to do so if she wanted to, Osaka Williams never publicly blamed any aspect of the chaos of that day. Williams and young up-and-comers did not always have warm relationships (see: Sloane Stephens), but she always showed appreciation for Osaka.
The two have remained on good footing since the 2018 U.S. Open and played an exhibition match in Adelaide last month.
“I think she’s a good competitor and a cool cat,” Williams said of Osaka on Tuesday.
All coverage is broadcast from 21:00 to 06:00 on ESPN2 in the United States; streaming is available on the ESPN + and ESPN3 programs. Here are the other matches in the semifinals.
Novak Djokovic vs. Aslan Karatsev
Top-seeded Novak Djokovic had a health anxiety in his third-round victory over 27th-seeded Taylor Fritz, who injured his abdomen as he slipped halfway through the third set on the track. Clearly struggling, Djokovic needed five sets to triumph over Fritz.
Despite the ongoing concerns, and Djokovic said the injury would have forced him to withdraw from the tournament if it had not been an extremely important Grand Slam event, Djokovic played well in his subsequent two games and the no. 6 Alexander Zverev both in four sets.
His next opponent is a significantly lesser known one: Aslan Karatsev, a Russian who played in his first Grand Slam draw at the age of 27 and changed into the Cinderella story of the event.
Karatsev, who qualified for the Australian Open at a qualifying event in Qatar last month, used clean and powerful foundations from both wings to beat other players, including Diego 8 Schwartzman, and Felix Auger-Aliassime, no. 20, to break down. Karatsev advanced to the semifinals after beating his opponent in the quarterfinals, no. 18, Grigor Dimitrov, limited by back spasms.
Djokovic should be expected to progress comfortably if he is healthy, but if he is not, no player has proved as opportunistic as Karatsev.
Karolina Muchova vs. Jennifer Brady
While certainly a bottom card for the previous Osaka-Williams clash, the semifinal between Karolina Muchova and Jennifer Brady could also be convincing.
Muchova, an outfield player, was able to survive many opponents playing close to their top form, including leading Ashleigh Barty in the quarterfinals. After struggling against the heat and taking a medical timeout halfway through the game, Muchova dominated the later stages, while being steady and purposeful on her mighty forehead, while Barty’s play was unlikely.
For Brady, whose game is more based on power from the baseline, running in Australia is a consolidation of her strong effort last summer, when she won a WTA tournament in Lexington, Ky., And the semifinals of the American Open reach, where she lost to Osaka. Brady spent 14 days in hard quarantine before the tournament started, and she was the only player in those circumstances to make the fourth round of the women’s draw.