The U.S. pandemic outlook continues to improve, with confirmed Covid-19 cases falling for the sixth consecutive week and the death toll declining over the past three weeks. But the spring break is imminent, leading to a potential increase in travel, with public health experts worried about the consequences if people do not stay awake.
The anxiety over the spring break is increasing after a particularly difficult few months when the numbers, hospitalizations and deaths increased dramatically towards the end of the break. And with several strains of the coronavirus circulating in the country – including some variants that are considered more transmissible – some experts are worried that the breakaway in the spring break could threaten recent progress.
Amber D’Souza, a professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said an event that seeks more travel and seeks to relax people’s preventive measures is worrying.
D’Souza said patterns that have emerged over the past year demonstrate how much the trajectory of the pandemic is driven by behavioral changes. For example, as places experience severe outbreaks, people usually respond by staying home, doing social distances, and wearing masks. But as the situation improves and restrictions are rolled back, there is a lot of tendency to become lax, which could lead to new outbreaks.
“That’s exactly what we saw after Thanksgiving and after Christmas,” she said. “It’s a constant cycle and a constant worry.”
Last year in March, the US had just begun to emerge as the new center of the pandemic, and states have struggled over the past year to limit the spread of the virus. On Sunday, the U.S. hit 500,000 deaths due to Covid-19, which obscured the death toll from every other country.
Although the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths has dropped over the past few weeks, the U.S. still averages more than 1,000 deaths a day from Covid-19.
“The rates have come down,” D’Souza said, “but it’s still not what we consider low. We’re just much better than where we were a month ago.”
D’Souza said some spring holidays led to local outbreaks last year, but the true impact of the spring trip may never be known, as the data was not tracked nationally. The Florida government in particular, Ron DeSantis, has been heavily criticized for refusing to close beaches last March, even though the coronavirus has spread across the state.
This year, some officials are introducing new restrictions ahead of the spring break. Miami Beach is setting a midnight curfew in the entertainment district, and alcohol is banned on the beach.
“If you come here because you think it’s a place that’s going, please turn around or go to another place,” Mayor Dan Gelber told WPLG-TV on Monday.
At the same time, US airports are reporting a steady increase in passengers compared to last year, although travel levels in the US are generally significantly lower.
Clayton Reid, CEO of travel marketing firm MMGY Global, said the rebound began last summer and is expected to continue.
“We expect a big return to travel in the spring and summer,” he said, adding that leisure travel in particular is likely to rise sharply once more vaccinations are available.
Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has advised Americans to avoid unnecessary travel.
But if people plan to get away in the spring, there are ways to reduce the risks, said Dr. Joseph Khabbaza, a specialist in lung and critical care medicine at the Cleveland Clinic, said.
“Across the board, it’s always going to be safer to drive somewhere other than to be at airports or bus terminals or ride with other people on trains,” he said.
Outdoor experiences, such as camping trips and visits to state or national parks, are also less risky, he said. But regardless of the destination, Khabbaza and D’Souza said, it is important to avoid large gatherings, wear masks and practice social distance.
“You want to be masked or find a place that is far away,” D’Souza said. “If you’re sitting at a crowded bar with a lot of people not masked, it’s definitely a possible source of transmission.”
D’Souza said she realizes that people may be dealing with pandemic fatigue and is looking for an escape, especially when the weather gets hot, but she urged people to be careful and weigh the risks.
“If people are not traveling at all, it’s the safest thing to do,” she said. “But when people choose to travel, it’s about being smart about it.”