When the African Union-mediated talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over a Nile River dam broke down again last month, it was not a new disagreement over the sharing of vital water resources.
On the contrary, it was a case of local rivalry that trumps understanding of science and cooperation, set out by African and Western mediators in various draft agreements.
Since then, Egypt’s media has been waging war drums, and a border area between Sudan and Ethiopia has erupted into violence.
The center of the dispute is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), built by successive governments in Addis Ababa with the aim of rescuing millions from poverty.
The dam’s turbines, located near the source of the Blue Nile in northwestern Ethiopia, will generate 6,000 megawatts of hydropower – critical in a country where more than half the population, about 50 million people, are without access to electricity , and the demand for power increases by 30% annually.
According to observers, the solution to Egypt and Sudan’s concerns about water security is simple: coordination and data sharing.
Yet, amid indications that the revival of traditional American diplomacy could help resolve the dam dispute, observers say mediators must also confront streams stronger than the Nile itself: nationalism, territorial disputes and a struggle for supremacy in the Horn of Africa. .
Regional supremacy
For Ethiopia, the dam project promises the rise of the country as a geopolitical player. Even amid the battle over the future of the country that erupted into war in the northern Tigray region of Ethiopia last November, the dam remains a matter that unites the diverse country.
“There was a sense of injustice among the government and in general the Ethiopian people that we as a poor country were unable to utilize a natural resource originating from Ethiopia,” said Awol Allo, an Ethiopian analyst and lecturer at Britain. Throat University.
“This dam project marks the revival of the Ethiopian state after the decades of shame, poverty and famine with which it was identified.”
A sense of personal investment and national unity around the dam strengthened after the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other lenders refused to fund the GERD. Ethiopia decided to do it alone in 2010, paid for it with state funds and bonds bought by private citizens, and in 2011 broke ground for the project.
“Every Ethiopian sees himself as a stakeholder in a project that is not just about energy needs, but a statement that Ethiopia is an important, powerful country that can work alone and apply on the local stage,” he said. Allo.
Downstream drama
Despite the draft agreements, disputes over the distribution of water between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have only deepened since construction work on the GERD was completed in 2020 and Addis Ababa began filling the reservoirs in July.
Downstream lands that have long been accustomed to the unlimited flow of the Nile for their farming, and fresh water is concerned about the potential impact of the dam on their water and food security.
Egypt, 1,000 kilometers downstream from the dam, has made a historic claim to a lion’s share of water from the Nile and considers GERD a national security threat. Egypt is currently dependent on the Nile for 90% of its fresh water and the vast majority of irrigation water for crops to feed its 105 million citizens. It is also about potential floods and droughts.
Egypt and Sudan dispute the lack of technical studies and assessments of the dam’s environmental and social impact downstream.
The tension is now high because Addis Ababa will fill the dam’s reservoir with another 11 billion cubic meters this year after the initial 4.9 BC that filled it in July 2020. The dam has a total capacity of 74 BC. “The biggest problem is not knowing how Ethiopia wants to use and operate the dam, what times of the year, what quantities and what the impact will be,” said Amal Kandeel, an environmental and policy consultant and former director of climate change. Environment and Security Program at the Middle East Institute. “Unknown countries cannot plan; they need clarity.
“Egypt will not benefit from the dam,” she says. “But if coordination, facts, evidence and data are shared transparently to a minimum, potential harm will be reduced.”
A ‘humiliation’ for Egypt
Egypt’s inability to stop or influence the project has over the past decade become a symbol of the government’s inner focus and its withdrawal from the Arab and African stages, which according to local critics has dramatically reduced Egypt’s geopolitical significance.
Egyptian insiders say privately that the prospect of Ethiopian control over water and food security in the Arab country is seen as a humiliation in the most populous country, driving Cairo’s hard line.
“For 50 or 60 years, Egypt has been the largest geopolitical actor, not only in the Middle East but also in the Northeastern Horn of Africa,” said Horn of Africa analyst Rashid Abdi.
“Times have changed, you have new governments that are becoming more assertive on the regional and world scene and acting independently,” he says. “This is a natural advance that Egypt finds uncomfortable.”
Egypt has called for intervention by the United States, its Arab allies and the UN Security Council. In June, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry warned of conflict if the United Nations did not intervene.
Following the halt to talks last month, Egyptian media have been pushing the media for the use of ‘violence’ against Ethiopia, advocating surgical strikes on the GERD’s electricity infrastructure.
It’s good for Sudan, but ….
Meanwhile, regional alliances and a century-old border dispute have transformed the northwestern neighbor of Ethiopia from a silent proponent of the dam to a destroyer.
Observers and experts agree: the benefits of the GERD to Sudan are many.
The dam, 20 kilometers from the border between Sudan and Ethiopia, will reduce the floods that Sudan has devastated in the past. The flooding of the Blue Nile last year destroyed one-third of the country’s cultivated agricultural land, destroyed 100,000 homes and killed 100 people, deepening the economic crisis in Sudan.
Reducing floods and irrigating water sharing will help Sudan cultivate more than 50 million hectares of arable land due to floods and mismanagement, a critical boost for an agricultural sector that is the largest employer in Sudan and accounts for 30% of the country’s gross domestic product.
Ethiopia also promised to export cheap electricity to Sudan.
‘Honest people in Khartoum will tell you that the dam is a positive net from all logical, logistical and economic perspectives. Sudan would objectively benefit from the dam, ”said Jonas Horner, Sudan analyst and deputy director for the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group.
“But it’s not quite that simple,” he said, pointing to the need for Sudan to balance regional alliances.
Khartoum – militarily close to Egypt, diplomatically indebted to Ethiopia, and financially and politically dependent on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, allied with Egypt – is reluctant to support both the dam, on the one hand, or to come down hard on Addis Abeba, on the other hand.
This complex balance was disrupted in December by the violent rule of a centuries-old border dispute between Sudan and Ethiopia.
Sudanese patrols are reportedly under fire from Ethiopian militias, and the Sudanese army and Ethiopian federal forces have clashed several times this month.
Ethiopian officials blame Cairo for the tension and claim an Egyptian conspiracy to prolong conflict and derail the completion of the GERD.
Traditional American Diplomacy
Observers agree that the dispute provides an opportunity for the Biden government to return to its promise of traditional American diplomacy.
The Trump administration’s single raids in the GERD dispute favor Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a Trump ally. Last July, the Trump administration partially suspended U.S. aid to Ethiopia after Addis Ababa rejected a draft agreement drafted by Washington that it strongly favored Cairo. President Donald Trump has publicly warned that Cairo “would blow up that dam” if talks failed.
In contrast, Foreign Minister Joe Biden, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken, promised in his confirmation hearing last month to keep ‘active involvement’ in addressing an increase in tensions that ‘potentially destabilizes the Horn of Africa’, indicating that he was considering appointing a special American envoy for the Horn of Africa.
However, observers warn that the Biden government must disrupt the web of local politics, nationalist zeal and power games to get the three states back to basics: water.
‘The war in Tigray has created instability in the Ethiopian state, and now you have the border issue with Sudan that is clearly linked to the GERD issue. “You have local actors in each of these countries to work for external actors to advance their interests,” he said. Allo.
“It will be difficult for any US government with all the goodwill in the world to put things right.”
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Originally published