Last week we learned that the Baseball Hall of Fame class was empty in 2021. There was no veterans committee in December and the BBWAA vote succeeded in getting no one to the required 75 per cent threshold to vote. Curt Schilling was the best voter with 71.1 percent. There was a lot of hassle about the nothing of the class on the internet because I must have heard it before. The last time there was an empty BBWAA vote was 2013, and what followed was a historic resurgence of Hall of Fame entries. It will not necessarily be repeated, but we will see new entries in the hall in the coming years.
I will now look ahead and put myself out there by trying to predict what is going to happen. Here are the next ten members of the Baseball Hall of Fame.
David Ortiz
Yes, I think Big Papi is going to make his first attempt next year. We can save all the arguing and hair splitting until December. I simply predict he will come in.
Minnie Minoso
Both the veterans committees “Early Baseball” (before 1950) and “Golden Days” (1950-1969) will meet at the Winter Conventions this coming December to possibly be inducted into the Hall of Fame class in 2022.
Minoso falls into the Golden Days group. The impact he had on the game is getting more and more attention as the years go by and at some point he is going to come in. Unfortunately, the honor of the posthumous variety is since he passed away in 2015, but a late honor is still an honor and he deserves one. We will say that the committee manages it this time and Minoso goes with …
Dick Allen
Allen also falls in the Golden Days group, and unfortunately it sometimes takes a death before the committee wakes up to how deserving a player was – and to be clear, the first failure here was in the BBWAA vote, where Allen peaked at 18.9 percent of the vote in 1996.
I have discussed before why I thought he deserved better and this can unfortunately happen after his death.
My prediction almost a year ahead of time is that the Hall of Fame class in 2022 will be Ortiz, Minoso and Allen. Minoso and Allen would be elected before Ortiz, but I’m much more sure about Ortiz’s chances, hence the ranking.
Scott Rolen
It’s possible I’m wrong in the 2022 class because Minoso and / or Allen could fall short. Roles can also join the group.
If Rolen does not reach the 2022 class, he will continue his momentum enough to reach the 2023 class. There was so much movement here that it would not make sense for something less than a major scandal to derail him. Look:
- 2018: 10.2 percent
- 2019: 17.2
- 2020: 35.3
- 2021: 52.9
Carlos Beltran
Beltran is getting on the ballot for the 2023 class, and he shouldn’t take long to go in. Although he does not have the traditional markers of 3,000 hits or 500 home runs, he is everywhere it should matter. He finished with 2,725 hits, 565 doubles, 435 homers, 1,587 RBIs, 1,582 runs and 312 steals. He won three gold gloves in midfield, along with the power-speed combination, while hitting average and posting solid OBPs. Although there is far too much emphasis placed on one particular record appearance, he is one of the more capable post-season hitters of his generation, hitting .307 / .412 / .609 with 15 doubles, 16 homers, 42 RBI, 45 runs and 11 steals in 65 playoffs. He is ninth in the JAWS in midfield behind eight Hall of Famers (most big circles, everyday big ones) and Mike Trout. One thing that could possibly work against Beltran, however, is his bond with the Astros scandal-stealing scandal.
Fred McGriff
Back in a veterans committee, this time it’s the Today’s Game Committee (1988 present), which will meet during the 2022 Winter Meetings to vote for the 2023 Hall of Fame class. Players must have retired for at least 15 years and are no longer eligible for the BBWAA vote.
I did everything in my power for years to get people as a Hall of Famer aboard McGriff’s case, and he eventually fell short in the 2019 vote.
Although there are ongoing discussions about players who have participated in or possibly participated in PEDs, it is generally accepted that McGriff did so naturally.
I have a bit of cautious optimism that the respect McGriff has gained over the years from his peers, and the neatness angle here in this committee, work in his favor, and he does.
7. Kenny Lofton
Maybe it’s wishful thinking here too, but Lofton is another BBWAA mistake I would like to have corrected. The prototypical lead man, Lofton, scored 0.299 in a 17-year career with a 0.372 base percentage. He is 15th in his career stolen bases and 63rd in runs. Lofton sits with his exceptional lead and defense with his chops at the top of the order, and sits 10th in midfield JAWS behind eight Hall of Famers, Mike Trout and Carlos Beltran. He is one place ahead of Andruw Jones. Lofton is also the career leader in stolen bases after season and is tied with Rickey Henderson for most stolen in a single post-season (11 in 1995).
If I were here – and it’s incredibly difficult to nail these things down specifically per year, so it’s doubtful – Rolen, Beltran, McGriff and Lofton would be a nice class of guys who probably would not be nearly as appreciated as they should have been. not been while playing. Yes, even Beltran.
Beltre is just as low on the list as he only comes in the 2024 Hall of Fame vote. Between his 3,166 hits (17th time), 636 doubles (11th), 477 homers (31st), 1,707 RBI (25th), 1,524 runs (64th), outstanding defense and not-the-card comparisons, I do not expect much resistance. For those interested, he is fourth in JAWS among third baseman behind Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews and Wade Boggs with George Brett and Chipper Jones sitting right behind.
9. Todd Helton
Helton does not quite have Rolen’s boom, but he’s not far from there. With three votes, he rose 16.5 percent to 29.2 to 44.9. With seven tries left and all the time in the world for the voting body to accept his work that is presumably PED-free, I believe he is on his way. We would guess that this is the 2024 class.
10. Andruw Jones
After stagnating from year one to two, Jones went from 7.5 to 19.4 to 33.9 percent. He has six ballot papers left. I think there’s a big momentum here and we’ll guess he’s joining Beltre and Helton in the 2024 class (possibly with Dale Murphy, a Braves teammate? See below at the end of the “vet committee” selection ).
Wild cards
Curt Schilling Lost in the rubble of self-sabotage that has become all too familiar with Schilling’s career after the game, is that he had only the highest percentage of his vote at 71.1 percent. He was only 16 votes shy of induction. He’s likely to have a good chance of coming in next year if he’s just as private as he claims he wants to be. Instead, I feel like he’s just continuing to shoot himself in the foot. Not much would surprise me though. He could really be the next one.
Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens – I just see nothing that can realistically happen to move them the 13 percent percent they need to get to 75 percent. It’s obviously not off the table, so keep looking.
Alex Rodriguez The record of next year’s polarizing ballot is perhaps the most polarizing figure of all. Manny Ramirez can not crack 30 percent, but A-Rod was better and did not have two failed PED tests. Bonds and Clemens are close, but A-Rod has been suspended by the league for 211 games for violating rules that Bonds and Clemens apparently did not violate once a penalty system was in place. I have no idea where A-Rod lands, but I think it’s somewhere south of 75 percent.
Omar Vizquel – He lost 3.5 percent of the voting cycle to 49.1. This is still within the scope and we will see what comes out of MLB’s investigation into domestic violence over allegations against Vizquel.
Billy Wagner, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon – What to do with shutters? Wagner is our guide here and he has achieved nearly 30 percent to 46.4 percent this past two voting cycles this year. Nathan and Papelbon have no shot without Wagner coming in, and even if he does, they have a tough road. I managed to put Wagner ahead of Jones at number 10 above. He has a real chance.
Gary Sheffield – He also gains momentum and sits on seven votes at 40.6 percent. I believe he will have a plateau of less than 75.
Joe Mauer and Chase Utley Mauer and Utley are going to finish the Hall, it’s here, but I’m not sure if they’ll make it on the first try, and they agree with Beltre for the 2024 class. They just miss the cut because I stopped in the top 10. They were also able to catch it both with the first try, and it would not be shocking.
More players from the veterinary committee – It is incredibly difficult to read about what the committees are going to do for many reasons. We do not know who is going to vote, we do not know exactly who is going to be on the committees and we do not really read the consistent voting history as such. Minoso, Allen, McGriff and Lofton were trained guesses, but they were still guesses. Referees, managers, general managers and owners were not considered here because I only listed players and there are definitely many other players that will be considered, such as Gil Hodges, Tony Oliva, Ken Boyer, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Dave Stieb , Bernie Williams and a host of others, not to mention the pre-1950s where I’m not even going to guess how the committee would vote. The Modern Baseball Committee (1970-87) also meets for the 2024 class and may include someone like Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Thurman Munson, Dwight Evans, Lou Whitaker and / or a number of other worthy candidates.