DETROIT (AP) – President Joe Biden, who has outlined his climate policy as a work plan, removed important contexts and used vague mathematics when announcing new green initiatives that he said would boost the U.S. economy by creation of 1 million new car jobs.
This is actually far from certain, if not unlikely.
A look at Biden’s statements during the signing of executive orders Wednesday that will replace the U.S. government’s fleet of approximately 650,000 vehicles with electric models and encourage a broader national shift to electric cars:
COMMANDMENTS: “Today is ‘Climate Day’ in the White House, which means that today is ‘Working Day’ in the White House … We are seeing these workers build new buildings and install 500,000 new charging stations for electric vehicles as we modernize. to match the changes that have already taken place … We are going to harness the purchasing power of the federal government to buy clean, emission-free vehicles manufactured and acquired by union workers here in America …. “American car industry means. One million.”
THE FACTS: There is a lot of skepticism about this claim. Some of the new job-related jobs will at least go at the expense of the current job. Automotive analysts do not see how a net profit of 1 million jobs in the sector can come from Biden’s plan.
One million new jobs in the automotive industry is a very ambitious goal which means that the number of employees now working in the manufacture of motor vehicles and spare parts is more than doubling.
Many analysts and the United Auto Workers union have in fact warned that manufacturing electric vehicles is likely to mean less net manufacturing work.
If more Americans drive electric vehicles, then it is less likely that they will drive gas-powered vehicles. And because electric vehicles typically have 30 to 40% fewer parts and are simpler to build, fewer workers are needed to assemble them. This will require a new job, as workers who once made engines, transmissions and other components for gas-powered cars will have to switch to electric cars and batteries.
“Because they are simpler, you are probably going to employ far fewer people in vehicle manufacturing than today,” said Sam Abuelsamid, chief analyst at Guidehouse Insights. He noted that it is much easier to automate the production of battery cells and packages, which can lower mail levels even further.
More than 100,000 workers are building gas-powered engines alone.
Abuelsamid added that in the coming years it will be difficult to create a million new cars, as sales of new vehicles in the US are expected to be equal at the pre-pandemic level for the next decade. “If nothing changes, you will not have a job anymore,” he said.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment when asked for an explanation of the 1 million new car jobs that show a record of lost jobs.
The shift of jobs from one sector to another will also not necessarily mean that workers who lose their jobs can easily make the leap to green jobs in the new economy. Part of Biden’s campaign promise was to promote economic equity, such as providing a greater opportunity for people without college degrees. In the short term, however, the workers may get the most hurt due to the first dismissal.
Kristin Dziczek, a vice president at the Center for Automotive Research, a think tank in the industry, said Biden’s goal was not well defined and that it would be “a heavy lift”. For example, the administration did not say in what time the 1 million jobs would be added.
The move toward electric vehicles is already taking place, although fully electric vehicles accounted for less than 2% of U.S. new vehicle sales last year. General Motors on Thursday announced a goal to make most of its vehicles electric by 2035, the same year California plans to ban the sale of new vehicles with gas.
Currently, car manufacturers pay workers who assemble batteries less than they pay for those who manufacture vehicles. Much of the battery life is also done by other businesses that pay less than members of the United Auto Workers union do at vehicle plants.
According to Biden’s campaign, the additional jobs will also include the construction and installation of the half a million new charging stations, and construction workers who will rebuild factories to build electric vehicles. Many components for electric vehicles are now being manufactured in other countries, and part of Biden’s plan is to build a U.S. supply chain to create additional jobs in the factory, the campaign said.
“Anyone who tells you that this is all positive for work – you can’t say at this point in any way,” Dziczek said.
___
Rugaber and Yen reported from Washington. AP Economics author Josh Boak contributed to this report.