This is the million-dollar question: when can life become normal?
Anthony Fauci is asked a lot about this.
‘It’s very difficult to predict, but I would think we’ll tackle some normalcy as we get towards the end of summer and autumn, and a considerable amount of normalcy in the winter of next year. . he told Insider in a recent interview.
Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, specifically referred to life in the United States. He pointed to two main factors that will determine whether his timeline is correct: “If we get the vast majority of the population vaccinated, and it seems like I suspect: that vaccinated people do not transmit.”
Both of these variables tend in a positive direction. Increasing evidence shows that US-approved shots do indeed prevent vaccinated people from easily transmitting the virus and thus promoting its spread.
“I think in the end, that will be the case,” Fauci said.
In terms of the number of Americans being vaccinated, and how fast, the ramp was impressive. Vaccination rates in the US doubled from February to March, then again from early March to early April. On average, more than 3 million doses are given daily in the United States, and 20% of Americans are fully vaccinated.
If enough people are vaccinated, the US can approach herd immunity
In clinical trials before their shots were approved, Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson only showed that their vaccines prevented COVID-19 symptoms. They have not tested whether their vaccines prevent asymptomatic cases.
But of course, without limiting asymptomatic infections, it is difficult to stop the transmission. An extensive investigation suggests that people who get the vaccines are likely to be less likely to spread the virus.
Still, Fauci said: “we have not yet proven it definitively.”
Studies are also increasingly showing that the shots provide protection that lasts at least six months.
Once enough Americans are vaccinated, the U.S. can approach herd immunity: the point at which enough people are vaccinated or immune due to an infection to stop the overall spread of the virus. According to Fauci, this threshold could be between 70% and 85% of the population.
“If we could just hold on for a while, we would reach a point where the protection of the general community through the vaccine would make it very unlikely that we would have a boom again,” he said.
If the rate of U.S. vaccination continues to double month-over-month, the country could reach that threshold as early as June.
President Biden has already asked states to change the date when every American over the age of 16 is eligible for a vaccine by April 19th. According to a poll by Kaiser Health News, the percentage of Americans who said they were reluctant to be vaccinated has halved since January. And on Friday, Pfizer asked U.S. regulators to make their shot available to adolescents between the ages of 12 and 15, as a recent trial showed it works for that age group.
“Ultimately, we want children, and we must have them,” Fauci said during a Senate hearing in March.
Fauci said the US should not ‘withdraw prematurely’
Determining when we go back to normal, of course, depends on how it is defined.
If normal means a return to unimportant travel, it looks like this: the CDC announced last week that vaccinated Americans can travel by plane, train or bus in the US without being quarantined or tested. They do have to wear masks.
But if it’s normal to return to regular meals at indoor restaurants, or to go to pubs, concerts and sporting events regularly without much risk of coronavirus infection, it’s a more complicated question.
States such as New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have already relaxed the coronavirus-related restrictions on collection sizes and the capacity constraints at restaurants and gyms. Texas, meanwhile, has eliminated capacity constraints for all state-owned enterprises, including pubs.
But all these changes contradict the recommendations of the CDC, and the recent reopening has in some cases coincided with nails. The rate of new infections is rising in 18 states.
“We are at an interesting crossroads where we have the virus in this country on a very worrying level, more than 60,000 new infections a day,” Fauci said. “It is therefore a race between the vaccine and the possibility that there will be another boom.”
In his own life, Fauci said, he still avoids pressure, indoors places where people remove their masks, even though he has been vaccinated. The CDC also recommends that vaccinated Americans avoid large and medium-sized gatherings and continue wearing masks. For most people, this means continuing to approach restaurants, bars and movie theaters with great care.
Still, Fauci is optimistic about avoiding a fourth coronavirus outbreak, given the speed of the U.S. vaccination: “We are absolutely going in the right direction,” he said.
“I think if we play it right, if we continue to vaccinate at the rate that we vaccinate people, and we do not retreat prematurely to our mitigation, then we should be doing well,” Fauci added.
We may have to keep wearing masks for a while
If it’s normal for everyone to throw away their masks, this is probably the longest timeline.
At least 18 states currently have no mask mandates – several of which, including Texas and Mississippi, revoked their nationwide mandates last month.
But Fauci thinks masks could stay next year, given the overwhelming research that shows how masks effectively reduce coronavirus spread.
When asked for a prediction about when masks will no longer be the standard, Fauci wants to ‘not go there’.
“Someone will come back and throw it in my face,” he said.
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