The conflict in Syria has seen the confluence of multiple, sometimes opposing forces in the air during a nearly decade-long civil war that today threatens to drag the United States’ foreign policy resources back into the swamp, one in which its closest ally, Israel, and a leading competitor, Russia, is among those operating in dangerous proximity.
The sudden rumble of jets and rocket explosions became an all too common feature of the ongoing war in Syria, and the attacks last week in the southwest of the country were an explosive reminder of the ongoing violence of the war. The airstrikes, which Israel did not claim but widely blamed, were aimed at positions near the Golan Heights and Damascus International Airport, where Israel accused Iran-related elements of storing and transporting weapons.
While the attacks were intended to cause damage to the ground, one senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, expressed concern about the large amount of air traffic caused by Israel’s semi-secret bombing while the Russian and Syrian air forces were carrying to carry out their own missions.
The official tells Newsweek that at the time, “the U.S. observed a significant increase in military air activity over Syria, including forces from Israel and Russia, in addition to Syrian aircraft.”
The increase in traffic made an accident more likely, the official said.
“The airspace was saturated above daily norms,” the official said, “providing an increased opportunity for miscalculation or perhaps the misidentification of targets by all entities.”
The US is working in Syria today as part of a multinational coalition with the defeat of the militant group Islamic State (ISIS) in the northeast of the country. Russia and Syria are also targeting ISIS in other parts of the country, along with other insurgent forces, some of which are backed by Turkey. Iran supports this latter campaign on the ground, but its cooperating militias are seen as a threat and targeted by Israel.
The complex control lines were blurred and led to reports of up to 170 reported aviation and unmanned aviation incidents involving at least seven countries as well as non-state actors. Some people are worried about Syria because a misunderstanding can always be only a few moments away.
“The pressure on airspace over Syria has always been a cause for concern, especially after the US intervened in Syria,” said a Syrian source who asked to remain anonymous. Newsweek.
With so many countries working in Syrian airspace, the chances are high that something will go wrong, this source said.
And then add missiles to the mixture.
“Now that Russia and the US and Turkey and France, not to mention Israel, all work near Syria, accidents are always possible,” the source added, “especially if the case involves air defense missiles. Once the missile is launched “there is no stopping.”
MUHAMMAD HAJ KADOUR / AFP / Getty Images
There have already been a number of deadly, high-profile miscalculations, such as Syria’s accidental downing of a Russian spy plane during an Israeli attack in 2018. Others, such as the US shooting down a Syrian plane allegedly flying over the area in owned by the Syrian Democratic Forces that backed the Pentagon the previous year, were deliberate escalations.
The Israeli and Syrian armies also shot down each other’s warplanes. There have been no clashes between Israeli and Russian planes yet. But with an increasing number of visits to Syria by Israel, such an incident cannot be ruled out.
To prevent this, the two countries have a coordination mechanism over Syria, the details of which are difficult to distinguish, especially given Moscow’s close ties with Damascus and strategic partnership with Tehran. At the same time, Russia has expressed its criticism of Israeli operations in the country.
“It is difficult to deny that such actions further destabilize the complex regional situation,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters amid a sharpening of the Israeli strikes in December.
Israel rarely discusses details of its Syrian operations, but an Israeli military official said Newsweek that the country’s communication with Russia has mitigated the risk for both sides.
“We do have an analysis mechanism in place with the Russian military that facilitates our freedom of action while minimizing the risk of friction with Russian troops, and promoting mutual security,” the Israeli military official said. “So far, it has been very effective and has withstood challenging conditions in a very dense combat space.”
Newsweek also spoke to an Israeli security official last month who discussed the challenges of target selection in Syria, given the uncertainty surrounding the conflict in Syria, where local troops, Iranian personnel, fighters from the Iranian-backed Libyan Shiite Muslim-Hezbollah movement and sometimes also Russian troops are operated.
“[The Syrian army] give [Hezbollah] a lot of room to do what they want, and that makes life a little uncomfortable, “Israeli security said at the time.” It’s a big problem for us to actually decide who to strike and what to do. ‘
Syria’s permanent mission to the United Nations has condemned what it calls ‘acts of aggression committed by Israel’ in previous statements issued to Newsweek.
On the ground, a second Syrian source requesting anonymity described the layout of this part of Syria’s air activity, where not only military-to-military incidents but also military and civilian airlines’ is a very common issue.
The Syrian government’s air operations over its own country are limited. Restricted areas include the Autonomous Northeast, a southeastern U.S.-controlled desert bag, and a northern border occupied by rebels, jihadists and Turkish troops, the second source said.
Syrian jets are also operating along the southern and western borders, as well as on the Mediterranean coast, but this source noted that any activity that is too close to the Lebanese or Israeli borders would be provided with an Israeli military response.
The second source said that the Russians do not share these restrictions – whether they are.
“There are some restrictions outside our waters, and there are some restrictions over Lebanon, in the south,” the second source explained. “While there are no restrictions for Russia at all. It is more free than we are.”
This freedom also extends beyond Syria’s exclusive economic zone, where ‘US spy planes also fly’, this source said.
Israeli army
The US and Russia have their own dismantling channels, both for air and ground operations in northeastern Syria, where tensions between the two countries and their respective allies have increased in recent months. The two countries conducted their campaigns largely separately, but occasionally dusted off, some of which were violent.
“Unlike the case between Russia and the US where a direct line between the two exists and minor incidents can be easily stopped before escalation,” the first Syrian source said. Newsweek, “the airstrikes between the two opponents, ie Syria and Israel, have always endangered local civilian flights.”
“Israeli jets flying in a civilian corridor or near a civilian plane and Syrian missiles searching for a large radar pulse after missing their closed targets or colliding with a house, name it,” the first source said. said. “Mistakes are possible and will always be costly.”
While Moscow’s mission in Syria to save President Bashar al-Assad’s government from a nationwide uprising was clear from the outset, Washington’s goals have changed over the course of the government. Former President Barack Obama initially tried to overthrow Assad by supporting insurgents, but moved on to an anti-ISIS mission later carried out by former President Donald Trump.
President Joe Biden, who served as Obama’s vice president, gave no indication that the US presence in Syria would end, despite Damascus’ calls for withdrawal. The new American leadership also did not indicate that they were prepared to become further involved in the conflict.
In a statement sent to Newsweeka State Department spokesman outlined three goals of President Joe Biden’s government in Syria.
First, “The United States is committed to a political settlement in line with UNSCR 2254 to end the conflict in Syria, in close consultation with our allies, partners and the UN,” the spokesman said.
Second, “We will use the tools at our disposal, including economic pressure, to pursue meaningful reform and accountability for the Assad regime,” the statement said.
Third, “The United States and the global coalition to defeat ISIS continue to work with our increasingly capable local partners to maintain constant pressure on ISIS remnants in Syria to ensure ISIS’s lasting defeat,” as concluded on Newsweek by State Department spokesman.
But U.S. officials have frequently refused to discuss the role of Israel in Syria, a country that has confirmed a long-term defense act by the Biden government. Israel was completely unmentioned in the Pentagon’s latest quarterly report to Congress outlining U.S. military missions in Iraq and Syria, despite references to the other major players, including Iran, Russia and Turkey.
Reached for comment by Newsweek, the US Central Command refused to discuss the details of air operations over the country visited by Russian and Israeli aircraft.
“I will refuse to comment on the airspace over Western Syria,” a Pentagon spokesman said.