American Coronavirus: Covid-19 cases have declined sharply. These factors will determine how pandemic unfolds from here, say a group of experts

American Coronavirus: Covid-19 cases have declined sharply. These factors will determine how pandemic unfolds from here, say a group of experts

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According to the latest model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, another 130,000 Americans are expected to die from the virus over the next three and a half years.
And while Covid-19 numbers may now be moving in the right direction, there are four key factors that will determine how the next few months will go, the IHME said in an information session accompanying its model.
The first two are what the pandemic numbers are likely to help continue a downward trajectory: increasing vaccinations and declining seasonality – referring to the pattern of lower transmission likely to occur in the U.S. during the spring and summer months.

“However, two factors can slow or even reverse the decline that started,” the IHME team said.

The first factor is the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant, which was first identified in the UK and experts warned that by spring it would become the dominant strain in the US. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that more than 980 cases of the variant have been detected in 37 states so far.

The second factor, according to the IHME team, is ‘increased behavior that favors COVID-19 transmission.’

“Shipping was limited during the winter through masked wear, reduced mobility and the avoidance of high-risk settings such as indoor eateries,” the team said. “As the daily number of cases decreases and vaccination increases, behavior is likely to change to an increased risk of transmission.”
Vaccines - despite variants - are still good news
This is why experts believe that this is not the time for the US to let its guard down. But a growing list of governors is weakening restrictions on Covid-19.

On Friday, New Jersey government Phil Murphy said the state had reversed Covid-19 restrictions on youth sports so parents or guardians of young athletes could attend. On the same day, the governor of Maine issued an executive order to extend the boundaries of the worship services.

Indoor dining – with capacity constraints – was resumed in New York City ahead of Valentine’s Day holiday, with New York Government’s Andrew Cuomo announcing Friday that he would extend bar and restaurant hours nationwide to 11 p.m.
A nurse gives the COVID-19 vaccine to Kedren Health on Thursday, February 11, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.

‘One step closer to winning the war against COVID’

Despite the concerns that still exist, officials are hopeful that they will continue to make their mark on the course of the pandemic as the vaccinations continue.

To date, approximately 37 million Americans have received at least their first dose of the two-part Covid-19 vaccines available to the U.S. market, CDC data show. About 13 million Americans are now fully vaccinated, according to the data.
Vaccination against Covid-19 is key for people with underlying health conditions, but access varies from state to country

“Our vaccine supply is rising, the positivity rate is falling and we are getting one step closer to the war against COVID every day,” Cuomo said in a statement, referring to the vaccinations in New York.

The state has so far administered 90% of the first dose of vaccines it has received from the federal government and more than 80% of the first and second doses, the governor said.

Nearly a third of American adults do not decide on the vaccination against Covid-19. Some say that friends and family can swing them

In California, officials announced that millions of people would be added to the vaccination priority list, including residents “at high risk with developmental and other disabilities” and residents with serious underlying health conditions. The plan, which begins in mid-March, broadens the ages of 65 and older to the ages of 16 to 64 who are in the categories.

But the announcement comes as the state continues to face challenges, including a shortage of vaccine, ‘said Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of the agency for health care and human services, said. This shortage of supplies forced several Los Angeles vaccination centers to close last week.
The move to vaccinate more priority groups – especially people with illnesses or underlying health conditions – was not uniform across the country, a CNN analysis showed.

In some states, people with underlying health conditions are not yet able to receive the vaccine.

In countries where they are, there are differences in what conditions someone is eligible for and what is needed to confirm the condition. And where these groups are eligible for a vaccine, provinces may have different timelines in how quickly the groups are vaccinated.

A new challenge this weekend

Meanwhile, some parts of the US face another challenge delaying vaccinations: weather.

Winter storms stretch from coast to coast and affect 100 million people

Federal officials expect transportation of Covid-19 vaccines to Texas to be delayed this week due to a severe winter storm, said W. Nim Kidd, head of Texas Emergency Management.

“Our vaccines that will arrive on Sunday, Monday will probably only arrive on Wednesday, Thursday, so we will see delays in the vaccine coming into the state,” Kidd said.

Some local vaccinations outside for the storm have also closed, the chief added.

“The indoor vaccination administration will continue as long as it is still safe to drive there,” Kidd said.

Meanwhile in Oregon, the Covid-19 mass vaccination site at the Oregon Convention Center will be closed Sunday due to the weather, according to a tweet of Kaiser Permanente NW. The center is located in Portland, where snow and rain have caused widespread power outages.
Those who made appointments will be contacted to reschedule another tweet said.

How CDC recommends you to travel

While officials continue to track the ongoing vaccinations and the spread of variants, there have been questions about whether there could be changes to travel requirements.

CDC does not recommend a Covid-19 test requirement before domestic travel
Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg recently said the Biden government is considering a rule requiring negative Covid-19 test results for domestic air travel.
But the CDC told CNN the agency does not currently recommend a Covid-19 test requirement before domestic flights.

“At present, the CDC does not recommend the necessary departure point for domestic travel,” the CDC statement said. “As part of our close monitoring of the pandemic, in particular the ongoing proliferation of variants, we will continue to review public health options to limit and mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in the travel space.”

The CDC also added that it does not currently recommend travel.

“If someone has to travel, they should be tested with a virus test 1-3 days before the trip,” the agency said. “After travel, a recommended social health measure is a recommended social health measure to reduce the risk, to go with a virus test 3-5 days after the trip and to quarantine yourself for 7 days, even if the test results are negative.

And just because someone is vaccinated does not mean that they have a free pass to travel and do not follow the guidelines, said dr. Anthony Fauci previously warned.

“It’s not a good idea to travel, period,” Fauci said. “If you absolutely have to travel and it’s essential, you’ll have to do it, of course. But we do not want people to think because they have been vaccinated, then other public health recommendations just do not apply.”

CNN’s Michael Nedelman, Lauren Mascarenhas, Elizabeth Cohen, Melissa Alonso Rebekah Riess, Hollie Silverman, Stephanie Becker, Cheri Mossburg, Kristina Sgueglia and Evan Simko-Bednarski contributed to this report.

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