A Russian court has sentenced opposition leader Alexei Navalny to two and a half years in prison, which has dealt a devastating blow to the pro-democracy movement that threatens President Vladimir Putin’s government.
Last August, Navalny was poisoned with Novichok, a very deadly nerve agent placed in front of a flight on the inside of his underpants, an operation almost certainly led by the Kremlin, if not by Putin himself.
Concerned about the care Navalny received at the Russian hospital where he was first taken, Navalny’s team sent the dissident, who was still in a coma at the time of the attack, to Berlin for treatment. He stayed in Germany for five months and used the time to expose his attackers before returning to Russia in January.
Navalny’s decision to return to his homeland was a challenging one, not only because the Russian government had just tried to kill him, but also because he would definitely be arrested when he landed in Moscow.
Late last year, the Kremlin put Navalny on the government’s federal search list, claiming it would avoid Russian federal authorities abroad. As part of a sentencing for a 2014 case of embezzlement, Navalny had to check in regularly with inspectors, but that’s hard to do while in a coma.
As expected, Navalny was arrested immediately upon his return.
During his trial on Tuesday, Navalny – never one that would ruin a public moment – used the platform to track down the Kremlin and the autocrat leading it.
“He has never taken part in a debate or in an election. Murder is the only way he knows how to fight. “He will go down in history as nothing more than a poisoner,” Navalny said of Putin. “Now we’ll have Vladimir the underpants poisoner.”
‘I demand my immediate release and the release of all political prisoners. I do not recognize your actions here – it is a deception and completely illegal, ‘Navalny concluded earlier. pull a heart to his wife, Yulia, on the glass cage in which he was.
In his speech, however, the judge could not be persuaded, who immediately sentenced Navalny to three and a half years in prison, with a little less than a year taken for time previously served in house arrest. Which means Navalny is now behind bars for about two years and eight months.
It is possible that Navalny will not spend the entire prison sentence in jail. His lawyer, Olga Mikhailova, said after the trial that she intended to appeal against the decision. And in 2013, Navalny was sentenced to five years in prison on a separate charge before being released just one day later.
According to experts, the problem is that the Russian regime has since become more oppressive and that it is unlikely to show much mercy to Navalny. “He will remain in prison longer, or he will be released on condition that he leave the country altogether,” said Irina Soboleva, an expert on Navalny’s movement at Duke University.
“In both cases, the movement will be significantly restricted,” she said. ‘
The outlook for Navalny’s movement is not good, but there is hope
The nationwide protests over the past two weekends, caused by Navalny’s arrest, have become Putin’s worst nightmare. Tens of thousands across the country took to the streets in more than 100 Russian cities to express their general frustration with the regime, many for the first time.
This is very worrying for Putin. His political party, United Russia, enjoys a large majority in the country’s legislature – meaning he can pursue almost any policy he wants. But elections in September threaten the vast majority, and that’s never a good sign if a large part of the country wants you in power.
Silencing Navalny before the vote could then help Putin maintain total control over Russia. Indeed, the overthrow of Putin was already a difficult task for Navalny. Without him it is almost impossible.
“His movement will continue, but it will be very challenging without his leader being able to speak,” said Angela Stent, who runs the Center for Eurasian, Russian and Eastern European Studies at Georgetown University.
What’s more, Duke’s Soboleva said the movement’s strategy – to call for the regime’s corruption and to get anti – Putin people elected to government positions – was drawn up at a time when Moscow was ‘controlling opposition’. against the Kremlin. Opposition candidates could choose to oust members of Putin’s United Russia party – and even win – as long as they tacitly agreed never to threaten Putin’s power.
But those days can be counted. “There is only one way forward for Putin,” Soboleva said, “and that is moving further towards authoritarianism.”
Others have a little more hope. Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Analysis in Washington, DC, said Navalny’s team is certainly planning for his long-term absence. “They absolutely knew it would happen after their return to Russia,” she told me.
This means it is possible that Navalny’s team may have extra ammunition – such as videos that are embarrassing to Putin – set up and ready to be released on Navalny’s popular YouTube page.
And while Navalny may be silenced for a while, others in his inner circle – namely his wife, Yulia – still have a public platform. “She is incredibly courageous, strong, principled, complex and inspiring,” said Michael McFaul, the US ambassador to Russia, from 2012 to 2014. while Nelson Mandela was locked up.
Eventually, however, most experts agreed that the uprising against Russia began and ended with Navalny. The question now is whether he can stay the bow image under the most difficult circumstances he faced during his anti-Putin campaign.
“Putin elevated Navalny today as the unequivocal leader of the Russian democratic opposition,” McFaul told me. “As long as he can continue to live in prison, he will continue to play a long role in Russian politics, especially in the post-Putin era.”