New restrictions on international border crossings, combined with shaky immunization efforts by COVID-19, have given up hope of a significant setback in air travel in 2021.
Why it matters: For world aviation, which suffered the worst year in history in 2020, the misery is likely to continue and deter a broader economic recovery.
- Predictions that air travel would recover to 50% of pre-pandemic levels by 2021 now seem to be a measure, industry officials warn.
- “There is a recovery, but it is a much smaller recovery,” Brian Pearce, chief economist at the International Air Transport Association, told reporters this week.
- “What we have seen in recent weeks is that governments are taking a much, much harder, more cautious approach.”
- Its worst case scenario: air travel in 2021 is just 38% of the 2019 levels.
The whole picture: The world is more locked up today than at any point in the last 12 months.
- New, possibly more contagious strains of the coronavirus have caused renewed limits for cross-border travel and a dizzying array of quarantine restrictions.
- Although the arrival of new vaccines is good news for air travel, the slow rollout means that herd immunity is still far away.
An ominous sign: Bookings for future trips declined significantly in January, IATA reports.
- “Things are going to get a lot harder before it gets better,” warns aviation consultant Shashank Nigam, CEO of Simpliflying.
- Even countries that vaccinate quickly will keep their borders for some time, he predicts.
- Israel, for example, leads the world with 20% of the population fully vaccinated, but last week imposed a ban on international travel to combat increasing cases of a rapidly spreading British variant.
- And local travel bubbles like those between Hong Kong and Singapore or Australia and New Zealand did not hold up.
Context: The rebound that began last summer stalled in the fourth quarter as cases of coronavirus rose around the world.
- Air travel fell by 70% in October, November and December compared to the previous year.
- For the whole of 2020, the demand for passengers fell by 66%. International passenger demand decreased by 75%; domestic demand by almost half.
- Americans who did fly were looking for sun and beaches: according to Airlines for America, Mexico and the US Virgin Islands fell the least in December.
- One bright spot: air freight fell by only 10% last year, which helped many airlines operate.
What they say: “Last year was a disaster. There is no other way to describe it,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and chief executive, said in a statement.
- “I do not think anyone will foresee a world free of COVID-19 any time soon. Certainly not in the coming months or even within this year. But our ability to manage the risk increases as more people are vaccinated and the increases test capability. ”
Airlines say widespread tests, not limitations, will allow international air travel to resume safely.
- Nigam’s company is developing a service called Fit2Fly.travel that connects airlines and test labs so passengers can plan a COVID-19 test as part of the booking process.
- New smartphone apps like CommonPass and IATA’s Travel Pass can help validate the health status of passengers, allowing governments to reopen borders safely.
Yes, but: As for domestic flights, U.S. airlines are appealing to the Biden administration not to require tests before departure, saying it will restrict access to travel for low-income and rural communities.
What to look for: For airlines, the outlook for the next year or two is uncertain, and it will depend on how effectively vaccines and tests can stop the spread of new variants.
The conclusion: Aviation is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023 or 2024.