Although the nominal deadline for a US withdrawal is May 1, several defense officials told CNN that the US-led NATO alliance wants decisions to be taken no later than April 1 because of the challenges to US weapons and equipment removed, amid concerns over some of it falling into the hands of the Taliban.
Since 9/11, the United States has dumped $ 864 billion and 2,400 lives in Afghanistan to pursue a noble idea: to become one of the poorest, most dangerous countries in the world, a self-sustaining democratic state, led by a strong , stable Afghan government that cannot be used as a stage to plan and launch terrorist attacks against other states.
” A corrupt, drug-addicted Afghan state will never be a reliable partner that can protect itself or the interests of the United States and other donors, ” Sopko said Wednesday in his report to the Center for Strategic and International Studies submitted. The only goal of the Afghan government is currently ‘survival’, Sopko said.
The country’s endemic corruption is actively undermining US reconstruction efforts and could lead to its direct failure. The illegal opium trade in Afghanistan flourished as the US and other countries curtailed efforts to curb counter-drugs and the Afghan government did little to hinder trade. And then the coronavirus pandemic wiped out the modest 3% growth in the Afghan economy in 2019.
“The way forward for reconstruction – regardless of the outcome of the current peace talks between the Taliban insurgents and the Afghan government – has never been more risky,” the report said. The government, which is heavily dependent on international donors, will struggle to sustain itself or its armed forces in the event of a complete withdrawal of US troops or a further decline in foreign aid. The Afghan government relies not only on the security and training provided by US forces, but also on the manpower and expertise provided by thousands of US and other contractors.
Biden must decide in weeks
The focus is on May 1, the date on which the US must withdraw all forces from Afghanistan under a peace agreement signed between the Trump administration and the Taliban. But every decision, from a total withdrawal to an increase in troop levels, requires planning and coordination weeks before the date.
If the Biden government completes the lottery and removes the remaining 2,500 troops from Afghanistan, it will require a major effort to remove or destroy weapons, equipment and facilities that could fall into the hands of the Taliban, defense officials told CNN said. While some equipment and sites may be handed over to the Afghan government, the uncertain future hangs over all decisions for now.
That means there is a desire for decisions to be made no later than April 1, defense officials said. Once a potential full withdrawal is less than 30 days away, weapons and equipment may be more likely to be destroyed, possibly through the use of explosives.
The challenge is geography. While as much equipment as possible is placed on board aircraft and flown in a last window of 30 days, it is not feasible due to the mountainous, rugged terrain of Afghanistan to pull over roads, and there are no nearby ports. By contrast, during the withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, convoys could move relatively easily on a southern route out of the country to Kuwait.
But for now, there is no clarity on the next steps.
“We are working closely with Afghan parties to encourage progress with a political settlement and a comprehensive ceasefire,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ned Price said on Tuesday. “We are also working diplomatically to mobilize regional and international support for peace. There is a broad and long-standing consensus that there is no military solution to this conflict, and that the political solution should be … through Afghan leadership and Afghan ownership. be. “
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said no final decision had been made and that the investigation between the options and policy bodies was ongoing.
US proposes power-sharing agreement
Blinken also suggested that Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Iran, should play a greater role and warned that Biden’s government continues to investigate whether to withdraw US troops.
The letter, sent by the US Special Representative for the Reconciliation of Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, offers the first real look at the Biden government’s thinking about Afghanistan, and seems to reflect frustration as Blinken writes that he wants Ghani ‘to have the understand urgency of my tone ‘.
The situation in Afghanistan is a thorny situation for Biden, who opposed the increase in US presence there during the Obama administration and said he wanted to end US involvement in the nearly 20-year conflict. Biden may face domestic criticism if he does not comply with the withdrawal, but at the same time Afghanistan remains unstable, the Taliban have increased their control over the wider parts of the country and the gains made by women and girls are in jeopardy.
The U.S. has “plans on the shelf” to effect a full withdrawal on May 1 when the order comes, a defense official told CNN. The plans include giving materials to the Afghans, sending some home and destroying them, the official said. Even with a drop from 13,000 personnel about a year ago to 2,500 soldiers, the calculation is large that it requires a significant number of aircraft and a long air improvement effort.
However, there may be a mix of decisions, including extending the mission to May 1, or some sort of negotiated agreement to allow for a longer withdrawal.
The reduced troop levels – the lowest since 2001 – offer a significant advantage. Due to multiple withdrawals in recent months, the years’ surplus stock has already been reduced, the official said. Less clear is how long it will take NATO allies to quickly withdraw their 8,000 troops and equipment.
But peace is not a panacea for Afghanistan, Sopko warned. A comprehensive peace deal could require an additional $ 5.2 billion in new foreign aid by 2024, the report said.
“Instead of a peace dividend, the international donor community could rather get stuck with the bill,” Sopko said.
CNN’s Nicole Gaouette, Kylie Atwood and Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report.