JERUSALEM – Sixteen years after being elected for a four-year term, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas announced on Friday that presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in the spring and summer.
The announcement was apparently part of an effort to get the divided Palestinian house in order and at least project a semblance of unity while the Palestinian Authority prepares to restore ties with Washington and Biden’s incoming government to a disastrous few years of disagreement and disconnection under President Trump.
The presidential order states that the vote for the long-running Palestinian Legislative Council will take place on May 22, followed by presidential elections on July 31.
Mr. Abbas, 85, the leader of Fatah, the mainstream Palestinian party, was last elected to office in early 2005 following the death of his predecessor, Yasir Arafat.
Analysts have said they believe Mr. Abbas now wants to renew his legitimacy in the eyes of the international community, especially with the impending arrival of Pres. Joseph R. Biden jr. In the White House, which according to them Mr. Abbas hopes to announce a return to negotiations with Israel.
“He does not want to hear from anyone that he does not represent the Palestinian people and that he is not in control of Gaza,” said Jihad Harb, an expert on Palestinian politics.
The last time the Palestinians went to the polls, it did not end happily.
In 2006, a rival party representing Hamas, the Islamic militant group, Fatah submitted to the Legislative Council elections, leading to one and a half years of awkward power-sharing.
The United States and much of the West refused to cooperate with the unity government because Hamas, which it considered a terrorist organization, would not accept international demands such as renouncing violence and turning Israel around. to recognize its right to exist.
A brief civil war broke out between the two groups in the coastal area of Gaza. It ended in June 2007, with Hamas taking control there after handing over power to Mr.
Mr. Abbas responded by establishing an emergency government in the West Bank, but Hamas officials refused to acknowledge it. The political and geographical split, as well as the collapse of a series of reconciliation agreements, have since halted any semblance of a functioning democratic process.
A follow-up race behind the scenes has long been underway in the Palestinian Authority, and Mr. Abbas said a few years ago that he did not want to run for the presidency again.
But there was no indication on Friday that he was planning to retire, and the election announcement was greeted with some skepticism because Mr. Abbas has in the past announced plans for elections that never took place.
In February 2011, Mr. Abbas, for example, announced that the election would take place in September of that year, but Hamas rejected the idea and they were suspended.
Hamas welcomes Abbas’ new decision and says in a statement that he would like to make the election “successful”. It added that work was needed to create an atmosphere for free and fair elections, and that Hamas had shown great flexibility in recent months ‘out of the belief that the decision belongs to the people.’
Nevertheless, some analysts have expressed significant doubts as to whether Abbas is interested in finally allowing the election to proceed, and the two rival Palestinian factions have not publicly explained how they will hold elections, while the West Bank and Gaza are ruled by the separate groups. .
“These orders are just a maneuver to buy time,” said Ghaith al-Omari, a former adviser to Mr. Abbas and a fellow member of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The deep suspicion between Abbas and Hamas still holds true, and the reasons that have prevented elections in the past remain unchanged.”
Nabil Amr, a Fatah veteran and former information minister, described the election decision as a preliminary practical step. But he warned that Palestinians who would lose against the election could work to hinder them. “There are Palestinians whose privileges will be taken away if the election is held so that they will act against it,” he said.
It remains unclear whether Hamas will accept the authority of the court that Mr. Abbas intends to resolve election disputes, how freely candidates will be able to fight and whether Mr. Abbas will agree to allow the security forces of Hamas, which he considers illegal. secure polling stations in Gaza.
Israel may also decide to prevent Palestinians from being annexed in East Jerusalem – a possible obstacle that Mr. Abbas said earlier would prevent elections from continuing.
Azzam al-Ahmad, a member of the Fatah Central Committee, said that Palestinian officials would ask Israel to refrain from “obstructing” the Palestinians voting in East Jerusalem, but added that he expected the Israelites would do the same.
Both Hamas and Fatah are convinced that they should hold elections, said Ghassan Khatib, a political scientist at Birzeit University in the West Bank, but it was unclear what election it would be.
“Will it be a real election, or will it be a staged election that will renew the legitimacy of the same old guards?” he said. “My fear is that this is a kind of election that is not going to make any difference – except that it will give the superficial impression that we are now more legal.”
More generally, he wondered how the election could be suspended after such a long and bitter split.
“How are we going to hold an election where the political system is completely divided into two separate electoral systems, two legal systems, two security apparatus, two things?” Mr. Khatib said. “That’s the question everyone is asking.”
Patrick Kingsley reported from Jerusalem and Mohammed Najib from Ramallah, West Bank.