More than a third of the large floating ice platforms around Antarctica could be in danger of pouring ‘unimaginable amounts’ of water into the sea and releasing them if world temperatures 4C are higher than pre-industrial levels, British scientists say.
Researchers at the University of Reading have said limiting the temperature rise to 2C could halve the area at risk and avoid a drastic rise in sea level.
The findings, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, suggest that warming by 4C could endanger 34% of the surface of all Antarctic ice sheets – about half a million square kilometers.
Ice shelves are permanently floating sheets of ice that are connected to a land mass; most surround the coast of Antarctica.
Ella Gilbert, a research scientist from the meteorological department of the University of Reading, said: ‘Ice shelves are important buffers that prevent glaciers on land from flowing freely in the ocean and contribute to sea level rise. When it collapses, it’s like a giant cork removed from a bottle, which can dump unimaginable amounts of water from glaciers into the sea.
‘We know that, when molten ice accumulates on the surface of ice shelves, it can cause it to break and collapse spectacularly.
“Previous research has given us a bigger picture that predicts the decline of the ice shelf in Antarctica. But our new study uses the latest modeling techniques to fill in the finer details and give more precise projections. ”
Gilbert said the team’s work underscores the importance of limiting global temperature rises, as set out in the Paris climate agreement, which promotes a global framework to avoid dangerous climate change by global warming to less than 2C above pre-industrial levels to limit.
As part of their modeling study, the researchers also identified Larsen C, the largest remaining ice shelf on the peninsula, as particularly at risk in a warmer climate. They said other ice racks facing this threat include Shackleton, Pine Island and Wilkins.
Gilbert said: ‘If current temperatures continue to rise, we could lose more Antarctic ice racks in the coming decades. Limiting warming will not only be good for Antarctica; maintaining ice racks means less global sea level rise, and that’s good for all of us. ”