A small team of ten researchers began designing vaccine candidates shortly after the genetic sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was announced last January. Over the past decade, the team has been working on vaccinations for the Zika virus and Ebola, as well as another coronavirus, MERS. They knew others working on a COVID vaccine would hit them on the market, but they had a bigger price.
This week, the team injected its vaccine candidate into the first human. If it works, it can increase the selling price for Modern (NASDAQ: MRNA), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), and others in the air. It would seem that the well-known manufacturer of biotechnology and blue chips is winning the battle against the new coronavirus, but this unsung group is trying to end the war.
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A jab to rule everyone
The first efforts of the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR) can be traced back to 1893. The group works with military and civilian professionals to develop products for both existing and potential threats. The organization’s branch of infectious diseases was the one that tackled the COVID challenge 15 months ago.
The goal of the team was to develop a drug that would vaccinate recipients against all coronaviruses. To do this, they will have to come up with a different approach. The currently authorized vaccines carry out instructions in the cells so that it can make the famous spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. When the body sees it and recognizes it as foreign, it develops antibodies to fight it if it ever returns.
Instead of giving instructions, the WRAIR vaccine provides a nanoparticle with 24 vein proteins and an adjuvant, an ingredient that helps boost the immune response. What is injected actually looks like a virus, not just a part of it. It helps the body to recognize more than just one characteristic marker. The result is a more robust immune response to any SARS virus, even the variants now spreading worldwide.
Simply put, the group believes it is on its way to a vaccine that can protect against all SARS coronaviruses. So far, tests in thousands of mice and dozens of monkeys have shown that the drug is effective against variants of the current virus, as well as other coronaviruses such as SARS-1. Even better, the military’s development process prioritized usability, so the vaccine did not require any special handling. It is stable enough to be thrown on the back of a motorcycle in a cooler and drive to any remote location.
Bank on a booster
Modern, Pfizer, a Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) everyone is expected to earn billions this year as COVID-19 vaccines are distributed. The guaranteed government contracts they signed were a major reason why they made the investments to get a vaccine in less than a year. While Johnson & Johnson expects about $ 8.5 billion more in total revenue this year, Moderna and Pfizer expect $ 18.4 billion and $ 15 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales, respectively.
Analysts predict that sustained spread and mutations will keep demand for the jabs high. Some estimates show that the market will decline from $ 75 billion this year to $ 23 billion next year, gradually reaching about $ 6 billion in 2025. This is a huge financial opportunity that would be in serious doubt if the US government were to develop its own comprehensive vaccine. .
America, Inc.
The US government poured more than $ 10 billion into vaccine development when the pandemic took hold last year. The funding was just the last contribution that stretched back for decades. Federally funded work that originated at Vanderbilt University and continued at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Defense led to the viral protein design used by Moderna and Pfizer. Related research published in 2013 and 2016 was the basis for creating the vaccine. In fact, the COVID vaccine from Moderna comes directly from a partnership with the same NIH mentioned above. Modifying RNA, the other trick that made these vaccines possible, was the work of an unchooled researcher at the University of Pennsylvania, Katalin Karikó. She submitted her first subsidy proposal in 1989.
This does not mean that the companies do not earn credit – nor do they have the economic advantage – to create the existing vaccines. They do. This makes it less surprising that a small government group has made a vaccine to end the war on coronaviruses once and for all. If it works, it’s hard to say who will benefit from the manufacture and distribution of a pan-SARS vaccine. Analysts’ analysis for years of vaccine profits will likely be slashed, as will the share price of any company that accepts the premium.
An advantage of government-led research is the absence of misleading press releases, huge stock sales, special options awards and retrospective bonus plans such as those discussed so hard last year. Instead, year after year, the drug would simply be the fruit of funding basic biological research. We can think of it as a dividend that we will all pay as stakeholders in this country.
This article represents the opinion of the author, who may not be in agreement with the ‘official’ recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We are furry! Questioning an investment thesis – even one of our own – helps us all to think critically about investments and to make decisions that help us become smarter, happier and richer.