A prognostic intelligence informant that the world pandemic post is marked by the climatic change and social fragmentation

The intelligence informers in the United States tienen small to offer as consuelo to a planet that is known of more than one year of pandemic. Next to them, in the next few years the world will continue to reach a place pretty sombrío.

The Jueves, the National Intelligence Council, a center of the Office of the National Intelligence Board, framed to elaborate prognostic and strategic estimates, published on informer cuatrienal titled “Tendencias globales”.

Agreed with an article of Washington Post which I collect the information, in our temporal horizon we will assist a world inquisitiveness due to the coronavirus pandemic, the conditions of the climatic cambio, marked by the massive migration, and a breach every time the mayor demands what the people need and what they can actually offer.

The intelligence community has been announcing for a long time to the legislators and the general public that the The pandemic could fundamentally remodel global politics and the national security of the United States.

The authors of the information, which do not represent the official policy of the United States, describe the pandemic as an anticipation of the crisis that is approaching.

In effect, the COVID-19 pandemic has a global destabilizer event -the council editor defined it as “the most significant and simple global disruption of the Second World War- that “has recorded worldwide its fragility” and “sacred ideas old” about how well the governors and institutions may respond to a catastrophe.

Además, the authors afirman que the pandemic is accelerating and exacerbating the social and economic difficulties that it will present before its release, in February 2020. And that the mishap reinforces the risks of “more global cascades in cascade, that from these days have the climatic change and the interruptions of the new technologies and the financial crisis”, write the authors.

The informant advised on an “imminent imbalance between existing challenges and futures and the capacity of institutions and systems to respond”.

Inside the societies, the fragmentation is increasing -political, cultural and economic- y “Large segments of the global population are willing to be challenged by the institutions and governments that consider that they have no choice but to abide by their needs.”, dice el informe.

Consequently, the effects of the persistent pandemic and the future may shape the expectations of the future generations of its governors., particularly when a world in which the calendent conducts new human conflicts, including a terrible scenario of global food escalation and massive violence.

The informant considers that the international stage is determined in the midst of the rivalry between China and the United States, but state that no State is prepared to convert into the dominant global force. While competing competencies to improve their positions, they will advance “a more volatile geopolitical entity and propensity to conflict”.

Technology, with all its potential to boost economies and increase communications, it can also aggravate political tensions, as it has in the past.

It’s likely that each person has more “The tendency to compare the information of the person, what refuses the credentials and the compensation for the world ”, conclude the information.

Although its predictions and the authors of the information advise that there is no capacity for the future, sí se atreven a trazar cinco scenarios en una specie escala móvil que pueden ayudarnos a saber hacia donde girará el mundo a medida que nos acercamos al 2040.

The 5 Future Scenarios Analyzed by Intelligence Specialists

At the most optimistic extreme, a species of “Reconstruction of democracies” would mark the beginning of a new era of global EU leadership., in that the economic crime and the technological logos ofrezcan solutions to the biggest problems of the world. In this case, Russia and China result in debilitating cases, such as those of the most brilliant scientific and emperor-rich business empires in the United States and Europe.

Del otro lado, in the dark version of the future, there is the “tragedy and the movement”; a scenario in which the United States is not the dominant actor, and a global ambient catastrophe provokes food and a revolution “from above has come”, with the young markets for the mistakes of their suffering during the pandemic, the need to adopt policies to repair the climate crisis and the social inequality of data. In this scenario, a European Union dominated by green working parties with the United Nations to expand international aid and focus on sustainability, and China has the goal of focusing on internal disasters in its affected cities.

Between these extremes, the imaginary information other three possibilities: China finds itself in a globally dominant state; United States and China prosper and compete with the two principal powers; and globalization in logarithm creates a single source of influence, and the world gets more or less blocks in competence, preoccupied with the facilities for its prosperity and security.

The present has much to say about the future, and there are all the other reasons to warn. “The international system, which includes organizations, alliances, rules and standards, is ill-conceived to address global challenges that challenge the public,” the authors write.

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