The Trump administration has downgraded a report outlining its Indo-Pacific strategy, including “accelerating the rise of India”, which has barred China from establishing ‘illiberal spheres of influence’ and maintaining ‘US strategic priority’ in the region , according to a copy seen by Axios.
Why it matters: The strategy outlined in the ten-page report, written in early 2018, has guided the U.S. approach to China, India, North Korea and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region over the past three years. Its release sheds light on the geopolitical and security challenges that will soon be inherited by the Biden government.
China is major player of concern set out in the document, followed by North Korea. The strategy highlights the fight against China’s growing influence abroad by seeking strategic alignment with allies and partners, maintaining a ‘liberal economic order’ in the region and working to “graft” the US and its partners against China intelligence activities.
- The strategy also outlines a major expansion of military, intelligence and diplomatic support to India as the primary regional weight against China – an approach that is likely to raise eyebrows in Beijing and Islamabad.
What they say: “The declassification of today’s framework demonstrates, with transparency, America’s strategic commitments to the Indian Pacific and to our allies and partners in the region,” wrote Robert O’Brien, National Security Adviser, in a January 5, 2021 memorandum. and contains with the strategy document.
Break it down: Over the past three years, the Trump administration has slashed many of its stated goals regarding China, including:
- Building an “international consensus that China’s industrial policies and unfair trade practices harm the global trading system”
- The expansion of U.S. counter-intelligence and law enforcement to counter China’s intelligence activities in the U.S., and the expansion of intelligence with allies to help them do the same.
- Developing military and asymmetric warfare strategies to assist Taiwan in its long-standing, strained relationship with China.
- Strengthening national security surveys of Chinese investments in sensitive US sectors
- Work with allies and partners to try to prevent the Chinese from acquiring military and strategic capabilities.
Yes, but: Some goals came up against the wind.
- The strategy has repeatedly called for greater US involvement with countries in the region, particularly the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In some cases, the U.S. has actually withdrawn from the region, including through Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the thwarting of ASEAN summits.
- The goal of showcasing the benefits of U.S. democratic values as a counterbalance to China in the region also received a major blow during the recent armed uprising at the U.S. Capitol. These events led to the resignation of one of the main authors of the strategy, former deputy national security Matt Pottinger.
Remarkable: India forms an important cornerstone of the appropriate Indo-Pacific strategy.
- The document states that enhanced US aid and intelligence-sharing should help India in key areas of conflict with China, including border disputes and water rights in the Himalayas. By 2020, India and China had their deadliest military skirmish along the border since 1967.
- But the relationship between America and India is complicated. During the Cold War, India refused to place itself in the Western camp and instead chose leadership in the non-aligned movement. Meanwhile, the US often tilted towards Pakistan, India’s historical arch-enemy in South Asia.
Background: The Trump administration has ushered in a new official framework to consider China and India as part of the same strategic region, the “Indo-Pacific”, which began its national security strategy in 2017.
- The U.S. Pacific Order was renamed the Indo-Pacific Order in 2018, in a move widely seen as a response to China’s rise.
Between the lines: Australia’s experience with China has strongly influenced the drafting of the Indo-Pacific Strategy.
- “In many ways, they have been at the forefront of understanding the impact on operations and interference in domestic systems,” a U.S. official told me. “They were pioneers and we need to give a lot of credit to Australia.”
- The official singled out former Australian senior intelligence adviser John Garnaut for praise, saying a 2017 report on Chinese influence by New Zealand scientist Anne-Marie Brady also influenced the US strategy.
Go deeper: State Department releases a blueprint to counter China.