8 things to know about Sunday’s NJ nor’easter

3.) Where is the snowbow?

The keys to success for this prediction are to find out:
1.) Who will get winter mix or straight rain, and how long will it last?
2.) Who will see the heaviest snow tires?

My latest snow map (above) is my estimate of how the two factors will play out.

—The Sweet Spot … The NJ Turnpike Passage through inland southern and central New Jersey appears to be the heaviest snowfall and 4 to 6+ inches of snow accumulating. (Behind the scenes I debated the labeling of this area 4-8 “ or even a straight ~ 6 “. I would not rule out 8 “snow in patches – there are even extraordinary scenarios as high as 10” or 12 “- but I think the mixing problem and band uncertainty make 6” a much more likely estimate for widespread snowfall.)

—Too hot on the coast … Although our initial snow forecasts seemed hopeful for snow lovers along the Jersey Shore, it is now pretty clear that rain and winter mix will eventually make the winter dreams disappear. I expect the green zone of the map to see mainly rain and / or soft mixes from the start until about Sunday afternoon, and miss most of the storm’s “hardships”. There is a chance for all snow in the afternoon, with limited accumulations possibly given the light snow intensity and the wet ground at that time.

—North Jersey too far … Far north of New Jersey, the worst of this coastal storm will be spared. You will still see snow, in the order of 2 to 4 inches. But the heaviest snow should stay south – not a guarantee, but this is where the consensus of the model points.

4.) What about the winding factor?

No prediction is complete without a degree of confidence, an explanation of how “locked up” the predicted scenario is.

In this case, I would say trust is high that we are going to accumulate moderate to heavy snow in much of New Jersey. The storm will have to wrap a lot to be a total fog.

Trust is medium that the snow totals will reflect the map I drew above. If heavy snow tires of mesoscale set up 25 miles in any direction, it will naturally affect who sees the most snow. If the temperature (at the surface or up) is only a few degrees lower than expected, we can see more (or less) mixing along coastal areas.

The prediction is therefore clearer than it was. And the fact remains that widespread snow of 6 inches will always have significant winter impact. But let us also remember that this prediction is still very sensitive to the exact trace of the storm, which is indeed still subject to faltering.

5.) What warnings and advice were issued?

The National Weather Service has a Winter Storm Warning for the following times and provinces:
—4 p.m. Sunday through 7 p.m. Sunday … Northwest Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, western Monmouth, Morris, Salem and Somerset.
—6 Sunday to 9pm Sunday … Mountains, Essex, Hudson, Eastern Passage and Union Provinces.

A less serious, less urgent, less dangerous Winter weather advice was posted for:
—4 p.m. Sunday through 7 p.m. Sunday … Atlantic, southeastern Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth, Ocean, Sussex and Warren.
—6 p.m. Sunday through 9 p.m. Sunday … Western Passaic County.

6.) Any flooding by wind or shore?

Nope.

Especially gusts of wind can approach 30 km / h after the storm like the Arctic air flowing in from the northwest.

The storm will move so fast that it will not have the opportunity to weaken our ocean. Storm surge of a few centimeters may not cause any problems with the coastal flow. (Especially since our astronomical tide is currently relatively low due to a waning crescent moon.)

7.) What is the conclusion?

It’s going to snow. It is a fast moving storm system, within about 12 hours inside and out. Expect winter weather early Sunday morning until part of the afternoon. That snow will be heavy for a while, away from the coast. Certainly hoeing for most of the state. Definitely plowable.

Travel will be difficult during the stormy season due to low visibility and poor traction. Hopefully crew crews will have enough time to clear the snow by Monday morning’s commute. (Remember that plowing will take much longer in areas with a foot of snow already on the ground from Monday’s storm.)

I suspect that affected schools would be more prone to a delayed opening (or virtual learning day) situation, if anything, rather than closing a straight ‘snow day’. (Sorry kiddies.) For any decision makers reading this, you should make the call as late as possible, based on your own local circumstances and policies on Sunday evening and / or Monday morning.

8.) What’s next?

For the third consecutive weekend, I walk into the weather center for the weekend. (‘This is the season!) I look forward to giving you the latest forecast before and during this winter storm on the 14 stations that make up the Townsquare New Jersey Weather Network.