WASHINGTON (AP) – Arguments begin Tuesday in indictment of Donald Trump over allegations that he incited the violent mob that stormed the US capital on January 6.
A look at five key questions about what to expect when senators hear the case against the former president in the very same room besieged by insurgents:
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WILL TRUMP BE JUDGED?
This is unlikely. While many Republicans have been critical of Trump for telling supporters to fight “like hell” and to go to the Capitol, their criticism has since softened.
The shift was clear during a test vote on January 26. Only five Republican senators voted against a motion aimed at dismissing the trial.
It would take a two-thirds Senate vote of 100 members to convict Trump of the charge, which is “incitement to rebellion.” If all 50 Democrats voted to convict him, 17 Republicans would have to join them to reach the threshold.
Most Republicans avoided the day of the riot to defend Trump’s actions. Instead, lawmakers have argued that the trial is unconstitutional because Trump is no longer in office. Democrats and many jurists disagree.
After the test vote in January, many Republicans indicated that Trump’s acquittal was a foregone conclusion.
“Do the math,” said Maine Senator Susan Collins, one of five Republicans who voted to continue the trial. Sen. Lindsey Graham, RS.C., said he believed the vote was a floor, not a ceiling, of Republican support for acquittal.
Yet some Republicans have said they are waiting to hear the arguments during the trial. Senator Rob Portman, Ohio, voted for the attempt to dismiss, but said constitutionality is “a completely different matter” than whether Trump is guilty of incitement.
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HOW DO TRUMP’S ATTORNEYS FIT A DEFENSE WITHOUT FORGING THE SENATE?
It is a sticky needle to thread. Trump’s team will likely try to remove the emotion from the case and concentrate on legal and practical arguments against conviction.
In their first application for the trial, his advocates made it clear that they would contest the constitutionality of the trial now that Trump has left the White House. This could leave out Republican senators who tend to acquit the former president without approving his behavior.
The defense may also argue that the trial is useless because Trump is no longer president, because removal from office is the automatic punishment for a conviction. Democrats note that after a conviction, the Senate could also prevent Trump from holding office in the future.
To the extent that advocates are forced to grapple head-to-head with the January 6 violence and chaos, they are likely to concede the horrors of that day, but blame it on the rioters who stormed the Capitol. Trump’s lawyers claim that Trump never incited the uprising.
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HOW DO THE MANAGERS OF THE HOUSE COME TO SKEPTIC REPUBLICANS?
It will not be easy. For the prosecutors, the conclusion is that the riot would not have taken place without Trump, therefore he should be held accountable.
This is a simple matter that, according to the Democrats, should not be exaggerated, especially since five people died in the midst of the chaos and senators themselves were the victims. The Senate quickly evacuated just as the insurgents pushed up stairs near the room. Once the senators were gone, rioters broke in and fired through the legislators’ desks.
The House’s accusation managers submitted a brief description of their arguments last week, using the beautiful and emotional appeals to argue Trump’s guilt.
According to the documentation, senators were ‘feet away’ from the swarming rioters and noted that those who ‘wore Trump equipment’ pushed Capitol police officers and punched them, stabbed their eyes, sprayed them with pepper spray and projectiles.
In the House, the indictment managers wrote: ‘Terrified members were trapped in the room; they prayed and tried to build up temporary defenses while rioters smashed the entrance … some members called loved ones for fear they would not survive the assault by President Trump’s rebellious mob. ”
These scenes will be brought to life during the trial. Prosecutors are expected to play video of the attack during their presentations.
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WILL WE HEAR FROM TRUMP?
That does not seem likely. He dismissed a request from prosecutors to testify through his attorneys. A subpoena seeking to compel his testimony is not expected at this stage.
Trump also no longer has access to Twitter, on which he relied heavily during his first indictment last year to attack the case against him and to repeat messages, videos and other messages from Republicans harassing Democrats.
With Trump in his Florida resort, his lawyers will be left to argue on his behalf. Democrats have pledged to confirm Trump’s unwillingness to testify against him during the trial, but the argument may not resonate. It is not clear that Republican senators – even the many who are likely to acquit him – really want to hear from him.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN TRUMP IS OBTAINED?
The likelihood of Trump’s acquittal worries some senators who fear the consequences for the country. Some have threatened the possibility of censoring Trump after the trial to ensure he is punished for the riot in some way.
But there could also be another way for Congress to prevent Trump from holding future office.
In an opinion piece published in The Washington Post last month, Yale Law professor Bruce Ackerman and Indiana University law professor Gerard Magliocca suggested that Congress turn to a provision of the 14th Amendment aimed at preventing people from holding federal office if they are considered to have “risen or revolted” against the Constitution.
The professors wrote that if a majority vote of both houses agreed that Trump was committing an act of ‘rebellion or rebellion’, then he was forbidden to go to the White House again. Only a two-thirds vote of each Congress Chamber in the future can undo the result.