Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, was qualified as ‘governor of America’ just one year ago and is now fighting for his political life. In late January, the Attorney General reported that Cuomo’s administration deliberately failed to disclose thousands of residents of nursing homes who had died of complications related to COVID-19, according to reports in an attempt to oust Cuomo. protected from possible political retaliation. The FBI and the U.S. Attorney’s Office are investigating the handling of the Cuomo administration of COVID-19 at nursing homes.
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Separately, between February 24 and March 8, five women, including four former assistants, accused Cuomo of sexual harassment or awkward romantic openings, such as kissing unwanted people or questioning them about their sex lives. Although his office denied some of the allegations, Cuomo apologized last week for making the women feel uncomfortable and said it was unintentional. He also agreed to have the Attorney General conduct an independent investigation into the claims.
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The twin scandals demanded Cuomo’s once-good approval rating and even led to an increasing number of calls for his resignation. But so far, Cuomo insists he will stay, and in many ways he remains a formidable candidate for re-election in 2022, leaving Cuomo with different results. Here are the four key ways in which Cuomo’s political future can unfold.
1. Cuomo thanks
Although Cuomo has been insisting on Sunday that he will not resign, politicians tend to deny that they are resigning until now. If one of these scandals worsens for Cuomo – say more women come forward or if the FBI announces criminal charges – the pressure to retire could become too great to bear. The two latest allegations of sexual harassment have already inspired Senate and House leaders to resign; than other leading New York politicians, such as Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, following their example, may not have much of a choice.
However, it is possible that Cuomo may dispel these allegations. In recent years, many politicians have successfully opposed calls for their resignation: in my opinion, 57 federal or government-wide politicians (not including Cuomo) have faced their scandal since 2017, with only 12 resigning. A fighting leader need look no further than Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, whose popularity has recovered from a scandal in 2019, as proof that it’s possible to wait for calls for your resignation and come forward with your career intact.
That said, I did find that officials accused of unwanted sexual advances resigned at a higher rate: seven out of 14. However, “unwanted sexual advances” is a broad category, which includes everything from inappropriate Facebook messages to allegations of rape, and there is no perfect comparison to Cuomo’s sex scandal – although the allegations so far are not as serious or graphic as many other scandals I have pursued in this category.
And as loud as the calls for Cuomo’s resignation were in the media, they represent only a minority of New Yorkers. According to a March 2-3 poll by Quinnipiac University, although 40 percent of registered voters in New York think Cuomo should resign, 55 percent of registered voters do not. And although registered voters did tell Emerson College / WPIX-TV / NewsNation (in a March 3-4 poll), 43 to 34 percent said Cuomo must resigned over the allegations of sexual harassment (the numbers for the nursing home scandal were similar), 23 percent were unsure; the public pressure on him to resign is therefore hardly overwhelming.
At the moment, Cuomo’s resignation seems unlikely – but that could change quickly with another bomb report or more sincere calls for his resignation. In addition, according to Fox News, there are already at least ten lawmakers who want to accuse him. Although removing Cuomo from office is theoretically a fifth scenario, so far there seems to be less appetite for it among legislators than resignation (10 vs. 37), and he may prefer to resign rather than become the first governor in New York to be removed. from 1913 out of office.
2. Cuomo retires
A more favorable outcome could be that Cuomo serves the rest of his term but is not eligible for re-election in 2022. This will enable him to leave on his own terms (to avoid the embarrassment of possibly losing re-election), while also retaining his legacy by not resigning. . Cuomo, who was first elected in 2010, has served longer than any other incumbent governor, and although New York does not have a term of office, only two governors in New York have ever served more than twelve years – it is therefore hardly unusual timing for him to step aside. Retirement is also public preference: In the Quinnipiac poll, registered voters in New York 59 to 36 percent said Cuomo should not be re-elected.
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On the other hand, politicians – even those who are under fire – do not often voluntarily give up power. Of the 57 scandal-ridden officials since 2017, 34 have sought re-election or higher office (and another four in 2022). Cuomo has not yet commented on his plans since these scandals erupted, but in 2019 he said he intends to run for re-election. He has also amassed a $ 16.8 million war chest that clearly indicates an intention to run – and this may tempt him to think he can force his way to a fourth term.
Cuomo runs for re-election and loses
If Cuomo decides to seek re-election, he is likely to gain strong opposition in both the primary and general elections. He probably had a primary challenge before these scandals; in both 2014 and 2018, he faced a serious challenge from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Although he still won more than 60 percent of the vote in both races, thanks to his strength among non-white voters, it is still about one-third of Democrats in New York who are strong against Cuomo.
And Cuomo’s recent scandals could eventually make the bloc big enough to defeat him, especially if a strong opponent like Attorney General Letitia James emerges. In the Emerson poll, only 44 percent of Democratic voters said they would re-elect Cuomo if the election were held today, while 56 percent said it was time for someone new. And Quinnipiac has found James to be the most popular politician in the state, with a whopping approval / disapproval rate of 82 to 3 percent among Democrats. A black opponent like James or Jumaane Williams, public advocate in New York City, is perhaps very well placed to eat in Cuomo’s base as well; in the Quinnipiac poll, James was the only state politician to be tested who had a higher approval rating than Cuomo among non-white respondents.
Cuomo’s main vulnerability probably lies in the Democratic primary, although he survives it, the general election may not be a cakewalk either. According to Emerson, Cuomo became completely unpopular in the Empire State, with an approval rating of 38 percent and a disapproval rate of 49 percent. (His situation is not quite as dire in the Quinnipiac poll: 45 percent approval, 46 percent disapproval.) And while New York’s strong Democratic leaning would help Cuomo, bias is not as strong in state races as in federal states, and sometimes the state’s dominant party nominates a candidate who is so controversial that the other side gets upset. (Just ask Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly of Kansas or Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards of Louisiana.) If the usual pattern of outside party strength in midterm elections holds, 2022 will also be a nationwide Republican election year.
4. Cuomo runs for re-election and wins
Of course, it is also possible that these scandals are merely a bump in the road and that Cuomo will win the re-election in 2022 – as he most likely would have done before all this. He still has all the benefits of maintenance, plus the $ 16.7 million war chest. And voters will not decide on Cuomo’s scandals alone. According to Emerson, 62 percent of voters in New York say a vaccination plan for COVID-19 is more important than an investigation into one of the scandals, and according to Quinnipiac, they still approve of dealing with the pandemic by 56 percent to 41 percent. And by 2022, it is quite possible that other issues will obscure these scandals in the news cycle as the benchmark by which Cuomo is judged.
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Even today, Cuomo is likely to start with the advantage in both the primary and the general. Both Emerson (53 percent to 34 percent) and Quinnipiac (65 percent to 27 percent) found that he still has a positive approval rate among Democratic voters, and Quinnipiac found that Democrats still want him to be re-elected, 50 percent to 44 percent. This is largely due to his enduring strength with colored voters, who are often forgotten in conversations about Cuomo’s popularity within parties, yet make up about 40 percent of Democratic voters in New York. It will be difficult for any Democrat to defeat him without breaking his grip on these voters – and while it can certainly happen, there is another complication. Several primary challengers can split the anti-Cuomo vote and make it easier for him to win with just a few loyal supporters. Cuomo would have the best chance of losing if faced with a single, primary challenger – but given how vulnerable Cuomo looks (and how many ambitious Democrats there are in New York), it can be difficult to beat his opponents coordinate.
As for the general election, while everything in the previous section still stands, the cold hard truth is that New York is a very blue state: President Biden carried it by 23 percentage points, and no Republican won a nationwide election there any level since 2002. Although Cuomo can not secure a victory if he perseveres until November 2022, he will certainly be the favorite – scandals and all.